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Posted on 06/11/2004 9:15:34 PM PDT by Denver Ditdat
The K7RA Solar Update
SEATTLE, WA, Jun 11, 2004
Solar activity remains low. As the sunspot cycle declines, we are inevitably headed toward a year or two of quiet sun. The sunspot minimum still is several years away, however.
This week average daily sunspot numbers were up slightly by more than 7 points to 68.3. Average daily solar flux was down nearly 10 points to 87.4. Geomagnetic conditions remained quiet to slightly unsettled.
The chance of any geomagnetic upset this weekend seems very remote. The sun is nearly blank, but as of June 10, two sunspots were peeking around the edge of the visible face. Solar flux is expected to remain low, declining to around 80 next week. Solar flux is expected to rise above 100 once again between June 19-22.
The Regional Warning Center Prague predicts quiet geomagnetic conditions June 13, 14 and 17, quiet to unsettled conditions June 12, and unsettled conditions June 11, 15 and 16. On June 9, the sun spewed a coronal mass ejection, but the energy was aimed away from Earth, and it caused no geomagnetic upset.
Remember, what most HF operators want is more sunspots and higher solar flux, but low geomagnetic A and K indices. Note that geomagnetic conditions are much quieter than they have been for many months, when it seemed that solar flares and geomagnetic storms would never stop.
Reader David Moore passed along an interesting article on sources of solar hazards in interplanetary space. Read it on the SpaceRef.com Web site.
For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service propagation page.
Sunspot numbers for June 3 through 9 were 77, 55, 59, 60, 82, 72 and 73, with a mean of 68.3. The 10.7 cm flux was 90, 89.4, 84.5, 88.4, 88.5, 86 and 85.2, with a mean of 87.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 11, 11, 11, 8, 9 and 14, with a mean of 10.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 14, 8, 12, 7, 6 and 13, with a mean of 9.4.
Amateur solar observer Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, Washington, provides this weekly report on solar conditions and propagation. This report also is available via W1AW every Friday and an abbreviated version also appears in The ARRL Letter. Readers may contact the author k7ra@arrl.net.
Ham Radio Ping ListPlease Freepmail me if you want to be added to or deleted from the list.
That's a good site. I have it bookmarked now. Thanks!
Bump.....Thanks for that.
Personally I'm VERY concerned about solar warming. Especially since it's all Bush's fault.
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