Posted on 06/11/2004 1:47:34 PM PDT by demlosers
Webster’s Dictionary defines denial as the “refusal to admit the truth or reality.” As the presidential election draws closer, denial is rampant among Republicans. Almost universally, they believe George W. Bush will be re-elected.
There is an addictive quality to this reaction. Republicans are not unlike alcoholics who deny they have a drinking problem despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Denial is a powerful mechanism, but as they say in AA meetings, it is time to accept that denial is not a river in Egypt.
By virtually every time-tested political model that predicts presidential outcomes, the verdict is clear: On his own, Bush can no longer win re-election. His only hope now is that Sen. John Kerry makes enough mistakes.
Snip...
An incumbent president’s job approval rating in a re-election year is seen by most presidential analysts and scholars as the most important indicator of re-election. The Gallup Organization, which has tracked presidential elections more than any other polling firm, points out that no president since World War II has been elected to a second term after falling below 50 percent approval at this point in an election year.
At the end of May, Bush’s job approval ratings, as measured by Gallup and large news outlets were:
Gallup: 46 percent approve; 51 percent disapprove
Newsweek: 42 percent approve; 52 percent disapprove
CBS News: 41 percent approve; 52 percent disapprove
Time/CNN: 46 percent approve; 49 percent disapprove
All of these ratings were the lowest of the Bush presidency — and the approval ratings recorded in May of an election year are the most crucial. Voters traditionally take an assessment of a sitting president five to six months before the election to determine if he deserves another term. By most accounts, the jury is in — and voters want Bush out.
snip...
This recovery has been unique. Voters are used to a return to their old jobs and standard of living after a recession. But this time, many jobs have simply disappeared, replaced with lower-paying jobs with less benefits.
With his dismal job approval and an economy not yet embraced by the public, Bush will defy all historical precedent if he wins re-election.
end snip...
(Robert G. Beckel’s e-mail address is rgbeckel@earthlink.net)
(Excerpt) Read more at oscnewsgazette.com ...
That's very interesting. I had not thought about it like that. Yet we must remember not to take anything for granted here and help Bush out as if he were 10% behind. Kerry must not be allowed to win!
Some obscure historical statistic will always accurately predict the occurrence of any future event.
Yeah right.
The author puts on a fine display of factual and educational ignorance..and of course willful propaganda.
Yes. The President's ALWAYS loses seats in congress in the midterm. Right?
Oh yes, and Jeb Bush was as good as gone. He was toast.
Yes, I have to admit it, I am in denial. There is no such thing as Bob Beckel.
"There is no such thing as Bob Beckel."
Oh yeah! Check the bottom of your shoes.
Harry Truman had a 36% approval rating in May of 1948.
How right you are! Have heard and read a lot of discussions about how President Bush and Rove will steal the election again. It's all BS but lots Dims really believe it.
BWAHAHAAAWAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAH! bump
One day people like him will be.
Anybody want to e-mail this FR link back to Beckell?
He may like to review the results against his hopes.
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