Posted on 06/11/2004 1:47:34 PM PDT by demlosers
Webster’s Dictionary defines denial as the “refusal to admit the truth or reality.” As the presidential election draws closer, denial is rampant among Republicans. Almost universally, they believe George W. Bush will be re-elected.
There is an addictive quality to this reaction. Republicans are not unlike alcoholics who deny they have a drinking problem despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Denial is a powerful mechanism, but as they say in AA meetings, it is time to accept that denial is not a river in Egypt.
By virtually every time-tested political model that predicts presidential outcomes, the verdict is clear: On his own, Bush can no longer win re-election. His only hope now is that Sen. John Kerry makes enough mistakes.
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An incumbent president’s job approval rating in a re-election year is seen by most presidential analysts and scholars as the most important indicator of re-election. The Gallup Organization, which has tracked presidential elections more than any other polling firm, points out that no president since World War II has been elected to a second term after falling below 50 percent approval at this point in an election year.
At the end of May, Bush’s job approval ratings, as measured by Gallup and large news outlets were:
Gallup: 46 percent approve; 51 percent disapprove
Newsweek: 42 percent approve; 52 percent disapprove
CBS News: 41 percent approve; 52 percent disapprove
Time/CNN: 46 percent approve; 49 percent disapprove
All of these ratings were the lowest of the Bush presidency — and the approval ratings recorded in May of an election year are the most crucial. Voters traditionally take an assessment of a sitting president five to six months before the election to determine if he deserves another term. By most accounts, the jury is in — and voters want Bush out.
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This recovery has been unique. Voters are used to a return to their old jobs and standard of living after a recession. But this time, many jobs have simply disappeared, replaced with lower-paying jobs with less benefits.
With his dismal job approval and an economy not yet embraced by the public, Bush will defy all historical precedent if he wins re-election.
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(Robert G. Beckel’s e-mail address is rgbeckel@earthlink.net)
(Excerpt) Read more at oscnewsgazette.com ...
As the impeachment trial proceeds, denial is rampant among Democrats. Almost universally, they believe William J. Clinton is an honest man.
Bob Beckel, perhaps the most ineffective Democrat operative in history, would naturally articulate this position. And, as usual, he will be wrong.
Not even Beckel will be suprised when Bush is reelected by a land slide. It is you Bob Beckel, who is in denial.
History also says that senators almost never win the presidency.
I tell you these people are going to go ballistic when Bush is elected, they are backing themselves into a corner from which there are only two doors, one is critical self examination, the other continued delusion, care to guess which they will open?
"Care to guess which they will open?"
Neither. They will ram their heads into the wall, trying to make a new exit.
Oh, Bob Beckel. No biggie. Can be ignored.
All this 'Bush cannot win' psychobabble is just a setup to be able to say 'Bush stole another election!!! It was impossible for him to win!!!'
I don't even think it is really denial. It is Beckel doing his *job*, which is to supress the vote for W, since there is no way to GOTV for Kerry.
Even some of my Democrat clients admit they hate him and will listen as I explain my support for Bush, w/o jumping all over me for it.
I don't even think it is really denial. It is Beckel doing his *job*, which is to supress the vote for W, since there is no way to GOTV for Kerry.
Even some of my Democrat clients admit they hate him and will listen as I explain my support for Bush, w/o jumping all over me for it.
Yes.
Also: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics has 60% supporting that Iraq was the right thing to do. And the realclearpolitics.com site has the spread on approval down over the past couple of days.
LOL, hisotry also suggested that the Dem's would win big in 2002.
sorry, history.
Yeah Bob Republicans are in denial - and Dims are into "wishful".
I'd say wishful is about the opposite of denial and equally self-delusional.
"Bookmarked for November schadenfreude."
Hehehehe, my thoughs -exactly-. I nominate this thread as the first thread to revive following Bush's victory come November.
Oh, by the way, in addition to the fact that a Kerry win would violate the historical precedent that Senators don't become President, it would -also- violate the historical precedent that "polarizing presidents win reelection".
Think about it. Of the last 6 presidents, 3 were polarizing (Nixon, Reagan, Clinton) and 3 weren't (Ford, Carter, Bush I). Guess which ones won reelection? And guess which category Bush II falls under?
Qwinn
I think you are right, and I believe their ploy will back fire and get more Bush supporters to the polls instead.
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