Perhaps shaded towards the optimistic, but Caspian oil has already been factored into the Peak Oil theory. As mentioned on the C2C Roundtable last night, when Peak Oil reaches the market analysts, and it has already reached the major news media, there will be disruption of the market. The Roundtable expects oil to be $100 a barrel fairly soon, and that is not the high estimate from the Berlin conference.
At that price level, it may become profitable to produce whale oil once again.
It'll never hit $100. At $60-$70 all sorts of coal gassification techniques will come on line, as will vast amounts of oil reserves that are not currently economical to produce.
Are you a proponent of Peak Oil theory? Where do you stand on the fossil fuel vs. abiotic generation debate?
Just curious. Not trying to start a fight. This is not my field.
Peak oil theory sort of is based on the fact that oil will begin running out quickly, the price will spike, and suburbia is doomed. However, proven reserves are still pretty high, and once oil does start to get more expensive, people will voluntary use less of it. Alternatives will become palatable. Vegetable oil and wind, sure. But also the oil pits in Alberta and shale oil. And once oil prices go up a bit more -- which may take a while -- you'll have nuclear not look so bad.
Peak theory and round table individuals have a vested interest in their doom and gloom forecast. Take it with a grain of salt.