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To: Rodney King

They will try to make it happen, but time is limited, and investment money is also limited. There could be several bad years followed by a more peaceful and less robust economy. Really bad years.


22 posted on 06/11/2004 12:59:24 PM PDT by RightWhale (Destroy the dark; restore the light)
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To: RightWhale
They will try to make it happen, but time is limited, and investment money is also limited. There could be several bad years followed by a more peaceful and less robust economy. Really bad years.

Perhaps, but what you are saying is that the market for oil is broken. Normally, as a resource becomes scare, the price increases as the scarcity becomes more acute. I.E., everyting does not just kick along fine until one day the resource doesn't exist anymore. The price starts to go up in both the spot and the futures markets before the resource runs out. These are the price signals that tell people to start committing assets to new supply.

The idea that we are going along fine, and then one day all hell is going to break loose, and that then and only then will people think about how to bring along new supply suggests that for oil, unlike every other item in the market, the market is broken - and that the spot and futures prices are not giving correct signals to the market place.

The other implication here is that if you think that, then you ought to be buying oil futures, as they are trading less than the spot price. That is, the market thinks that oil prices are going to go down in the future. If they oil market as a whole is wrong, then you stand to make a lot of money.

The more likely situation, imho, is that all of the journalists and the internet jockeys don't think that there are any prospects for increased supplies because the government isn't in charge of talking about them, and that in reality there are literally tens of thousands of people with their own plans to bring new energy supplies to market when the time is right. I know that If I had a good idea to profit as oil prices rise, I sure wouldn't be telling anyone about it.

26 posted on 06/11/2004 1:06:42 PM PDT by Rodney King (No, we can't all just get along)
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