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I checked the Times state by state data: Bush has a lead in the Electoral College of 222 electoral votes to Kerry's 168. Kerry has California and New York locked up. Bush has Texas. The battleground states, too close to call are Florida, Pennslyvania, Ohio, and Michigan. What's surprising is Kerry's tying the President in New Hampshire. That's a sign its demographics may be changing. Kerry's ahead in WA, W VA, WI, NM PA, FL and NJ but not outside the margin of error so they're too close to call. Bush is ahead in OH but not outside the MOE - again too close to call. To have a second term Bush will need to win OH and either PA or FL. So contrary to the Times spin, this election is still pretty much touch and go, with the President having an EC lead at the moment but not a majority.

"What's surprising is Kerry's tying the President in New Hampshire. "
why is this surprising?
Kerry has name recognition up here plus NH voted for Clinton twice and nearly voted for Gore.
Currently we have an R gov, two R Senators and 2 R congressman with Rs overwhelmingly in control of the house and Senate.
It truly is a swing state despite its conservatism. Once NH knows Kerry will raise taxes i am hoping that They will rally to Bush.
Also the fact that they are tied is a bonus since Kerry was leading Bush by nearly 12 points up here at one point :)