Posted on 06/10/2004 4:41:16 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
A top Taiwanese defense official and an expert on the Chinese military both said yesterday Beijing is ready, willing and able to attack the island soon.
The Peoples Liberation Army has the capability to blockade Taiwan using missile-strike zones, George Washington University professor David Shambaugh told the Foreign Correspondents Club in Beijing.
The world should not be surprised if the mainland makes the move against Taiwan in 2006, he added.
"The PLA is increasingly able and willing to use a whole range of means to threaten Taiwan – electronic, naval, air, missiles, special operations," said Shambaugh. "[The PLA] has been preparing since the 1996 missile crisis to implement a spectrum of capabilities.
He added: "[Taiwanese President] Chen Shui-bian set the timeline – in 2006 he will amend the constitution, and there is no belief whatsoever in Beijing that it will just be a partial amendment. His inauguration speech was a red rag to a bull, and the PLA is preparing diplomatically and militarily."
Shambaugh refused to speculate on possible scenarios for a PLA attack. Nor would he comment on whether the U.S. would intervene. But he did say he doubted the ability of Taiwan's military to withstand Chinese attack.
Taiwan spent $6.4 billion on weapons procurement in 2000 and this year is looking at additional weapons purchases amounting to $18 billion – spending that would come on top of the island's annual defense budget of nearly $10 billion. The U.S. military has sent hundreds of software experts to Taiwan to help its forces upgrade their military preparedness, especially in the use of Patriot anti-missile systems.
"Taiwan's self-defense capabilities have been wanting in many areas," Shambaugh said. "If you're focused on hardware, you're missing the big picture. There still is a major question on how well Taiwan is absorbing the weapons that are being sold to them and the answer is not that well."
Meanwhile, Taiwan's Vice Defense Minister Tsai Ming-hsien said the Chinese communist forces might attack the island in the coming years and called for the passage of a special budget seeking to boost the island's military might.
"The Chinese Communists are likely to conduct small-scale or partial attacks in 2006 or 2008," Tsai said in Parliament.
Asked why he thought the Chinese military would attack during that period, Tsai said because by "that time they may have acquired air and naval superiority (over Taiwan)" following Beijing's persistent arms build-up.
Though some military analysts believe Taiwan still has the ability to defend itself against a Chinese attack, Shambaugh said the PLA now has the edge.
"Some say the PLA will tip the balance by 2008, but I'll say they've already tipped the balance," he said. "The PLA is already superior to the forces in Taiwan."
The PLA navy has 65 surface warships and 35 submarines – a small fleet when compared to the blue-water navies of the United States or Russia.
"How hard is it to blockade Taiwan?" he asked. "You're only talking about two ports and one naval base. The PLA has invented a new form of blockade with its missile-strike zones. When the PLA designates an area off Taiwan a missile-strike zone, no ship will dare cross the zone."
Tsai, meanwhile, urged approval of a special outlay for Taiwan's purchase of eight submarines, a modified version of the Patriot anti-missile systems PAC-III and a fleet of anti-submarine aircraft over a 15-year period commencing in 2005.
China has repeatedly threatened to invade Taiwan should the island declare formal independence.
Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party has pledged to amend the constitution before retiring in 2008 to reflect his group's separatist stance.
The DPP government insists the current constitution, enacted by the former Kuomintang government, must be dramatically changed to meet Taiwan's needs, but Beijing sees the attempt as a step towards formal independence.
The U.S. Defense Department warned in a report last month that China was developing "credible military options" to prevent Taiwan from achieving independence, including tools to discourage the United States from coming to the island's aid in a conflict with the mainland.
Separately, the defense ministry issued a statement denying a U.S. report suggesting Taiwan could repel a Chinese attack by bombing China's Three Gorges Dam.
They're betting on a Kerry win.
well I would find it hard to believe they would make such a move before the olympics. Plus how many ships carrying chinese troops would be sunk before they left the port? We have quite a few attack subs that have too much time on thier hands.
Knocking out that dam would be something.
PLA? Sounds like one of those terrorist acronyms. I wonder how our supplying the Taiwanese with nuclear weapons would affect the communist's plans?
The Chinese have more than 35 subs.
Pragmatically, China would not care whether anyone came to the Olympics or not. The main concern would be whether anything would be left of their military after they attacked Taiwan. The attack, successful or not, could put China out of business for decades. Their incoherent and confusing history would add yet another incoherent and confusing chapter as China collapsed from within to eventually two or four different countries, none of them able to rule Taiwan.
Bush Sends Stern Warning to Taiwan over Independence Moves
We can't exactly confront China when they are funding the growth of government.
Taiwan would be in deep trouble and would face a Red Chinese attack from TWO major armed camps. The first red Chinese attck would come, of course, from the Chinese mainland. The second prong of the attack would come from the major Chinese military base in Panama.
Agreed...my gut feeling is that China aren't going to rock the boat as long as their pride is left undamaged and they have prestige and cash. The worst danger for starting a war is an economic downturn, Taiwan arbitrarily declaring independence or anything else destabilising.
Wars for territorial control are so twentieth century. Why resort to them when you reap more through peaceful means...that said, if you want peace, prepare for war.
As to their subs, their current vessels aren't the great factor - the fact that they're developing a set of experienced submariners and beginning to build and buy the better Kilos is. An average sub in the hands of an experienced professional crew is more dangerous than a top notch sub in the hands of a green crew chosen for political reliability. When you consider the abysmal state they were in under Mao, the professionalism blossoming again in one generation is amazing.
"When the PLA designates an area off Taiwan a missile-strike zone, no ship will dare cross the zone."
Bah. What will the PLA do when the US sends a carrier taskforce into the "zone?"
This guy sounds like one of those foreign service types who end up identifying with "their" country.
I'm not sure that you have a very clear idea of exactly how far it is from Panama to Taiwan. It would be easier to launch an attack from, say, Turkey or Madagascar.
They are making great progress very quickly. I am watching their space program, they are doing very well.
well not sure about that. Have you seen the price of Rebar latley ? Some going to Iraq but most going to CHINA. for the olympics. This is their chance to show the world they have indoor plumbing. My bet is that the old gaurd dies off and the place goes hong kong ish
China has massive wargames scheduled for the Taiwan Straits at the end of this month.
We just sortied 7 carrier battle groups, reassinged 12,000 troops from S. Korea and are making plans to pull 40,000 out of Germany.
Pieces of a puzzle?
It is according as to how the '04 election over here turns out.
If President Bush is re-elected,it is iffy.
If john kerry is elected, it probably be a go.
Do you guys honestly think it will be beneficial for the US will get involved in a war between China and Taiwan? I don't think so. Maybe just some type of covert operations, but nothing big.
You guys are nuts. China's Navy would be taken out in about 2 days. The vessels are crap.
I agree. I'm no fan of totalitarian regimes but anything that gets humanity back into space is good to me. I just hope the current wave of interest in space lasts long enough for a realistic and sustainable program to be set in place. I like the quite simple and achievable goals they set - they're not overreaching themselves.
I also think the governments of the west might be surprised to learn that the public will accept risks as part of a space program. This belief you can wrap our explorers in cotton blankets and keep them safe or nothing doing is killing the entire space arena (Well, at least giving dictatorships a chance to catch up).
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