Posted on 06/09/2004 10:23:58 AM PDT by Golden Eagle
Linux represents a threat and an opportunity for every software and hardware company. Apple is once again at the crossroads. While it will take a couple of years before we know whether the company will make the right choice, one thing is clear: Apple's path is about to become vastly more interesting.
I'm currently reading a science fiction book that refers to Bill Gates, and I was watching a movie recently in which one of the streets is named Microsoft Way, which happened to be on the moon. Clearly, Microsoft permeates much of what we do in tech, so it's no wonder that every time there is a change, we focus on the impact on Microsoft and attempt to forecast a demise that has been overhyped and simply not forthcoming. The Linux threat to Microsoft has, despite all of the hype, failed to make much of a dent in Microsoft's financial performance. But while we were watching for that impact, Sun was all but gutted. Think back that, with all of the rhetoric surrounding the death of Microsoft, even Sun was focusing on Microsoft and actually helping create a future in which Sun would not exist. The company even went so far as to fund OpenOffice, which further supported the belief that Linux is the future and that proprietary companies like Sun are the extinct past.
The reason Linux took Sun out so easily is that it attacked Sun where it was the most vulnerable: in the hardware. Linux has the advantage that Microsoft enjoys in that it uses low-cost commodity hardware. Sun enjoys one huge disadvantage that Microsoft does not enjoy: Linux is a Unix derivative and, as such, it is an easy migration from Unix for administrators. It also uses the same tools, which makes it attractive to Unix administrators and technicians. And, lastly, Linux is trendy, where Unix has been seen as a dull legacy system for some time. Sun has been undergoing dramatic changes, but while the threat to the Unix servers is now clear, there is no threat to the desktop other than Microsoft. Right? It's not like there is a desktop Unix, is there? Of course there is: The Mac OS is now based on FreeBSD Unix, as was Solaris, which makes Apple a natural target.
(Excerpt) Read more at technewsworld.com ...
Tech Ping
A very silly article. I run both Mac OSX and Linux. No way I'd use Linux for desktop computing; but even a twin-processor G5 isn't as fast for number crunching as a 3GHz twin Pentium running Linux. Linux might be a threat to a clunky, inelegant operating system like - oh, I can't think of one - but it ain't going to attract users away from Macintosh for desktop use.
I can.
"Damn shame for one of our true tech icons, I wish them well."
Apple made serious mistakes back in the mid-80's which essentially sealed their fate as a major player in the desktop business. I won't list them, but they're pretty well-known.
Microsoft rules the desktop, and is rapidly making inroads in the server market as well. I don't see that ending anytime soon.
Wishing Apple well won't do much good, I'm afraid.
Like DOS?
"Oh, man, I just ride in 'em. I don't know what makes 'em work."
Oddball (Kelly's Heroes)
I think you're actually agreeing with the author. His point was Linux is designed to clone existing products, and clones of the OSX desktop are under development by others than Apple. Should they be successful in creating a "free" OSX desktop, Apple could be hosed, because their O/S is their bread and butter, not their hardware which as you indicated has a low price/performance ratio.
Don't Macs still use a custom BIOS (or a ROM??) to prevent clones?
Well Golden Eagle I for one thank you for this post.
It is a very interesting one and one that I probably would have missed.
I for one hope someone comes up with a decent GUI for Linux. X is such a dog that it drives me nuts.
And to me it seems that two facts are obvious. Without much competition on the desktop, users are screwed.
And Linux is going to remain marginal until somebody can make it more user friendly.
While I agree with your statements for the most part, a whole LOT of Microsoft's ideas came from Apple, who have been an innovating force in the peecee industry from the very begining, and who still make outstanding products. If that role is replaced by freeware vendors who don't innovate things, but simply clone them and give them away for free, the entire sector will be damaged. Apple is the competition Microsoft needs, not clones of Apple.
What I don't understand is why Apple doesn't port OSX to the intel chips. I have an imac at home running it and it's a great OS. I think people would prefer it to either Windows or (especially)Linux for a desktop environment.
I don't think Apple will ever die as a computer maker - they may have a smaller niche, but many users are as cultish as the MS Drones and are willing to pay the premium for Apple gear.
They try but hackers have found ways around it. Running Linux on Apple hardware isn't that big a problem for Apple, the real issue is if one of the Linux vendors makes an OSX clone that runs on Intel, giving the user a "free" version of OSX that runs on cheaper hardware, it could be the end of Apple. The author mentions ways they might try to combat that, but none are without the unkown or possible drawbacks. Their current plan to stay afloat seems to be selling online music, let's hope that's not their ultimate fate.
Even assuming Enderle is accurate, wouldn't it be quite reasonable to assume that once Linux supplants and consolidates its hold in Sun/Apple/etc. territory, that MS will also suffer competitive pressure as well?
You're welcome, although I don't believe I would agree that foreign freeware like Linux displacing long time US tech companies is good for us in the end.
Hardware. Apple constantly (in fact, annoyingly) totes their "elegant and sophisticated" form factor as one of their major benefits. This is nearly moot now because any Linux distro can be installed on any regular "box"..and, there are some pretty cool looking non-Mac boxes out there. Keyboards and mouses come in every variety, color, shape, size, etc, so the accesories "form factor" argument is also out.
So, what does that leave? Software, right?
Linux, while not nearly as competitive with Microsoft as has been hoped, is a clear threat to Apple. A few points...
And, here's my last thought: Once there are is a reliable and easy-to-use database application (on par with Access [I know, I know...] or FileMaker), Linux will start to take more and more precedent. MySQL is a great dB, but even with the administrative tools that are being developed, it still is too hard for the small businessmen or home user. The community (or a company) develops that and I think, in the immortal words of Cartman, "oh, it's on."
I agree, and many analysts like Enderle and John Dvorak have fallen on their sword making that prediction in the past. The issue, IMO, is Apple would see that as capitulation to the Intel chip, which is Apple's long time competitor in the peecee market. Apple was orginally with Motorola remember, and could have changed to Intel when they changed to the Power processor line, but didn't want to then, either.
There is one. X has been ported to the Mac; I tried it out last year. Let's just say it needs to get a lot better.
What Mac users value is seamlessness and ease of use. While I love Linux, I doubt a collective, amateur project will ever get to the sort of elegance you see in Panther.
"While I agree with your statements for the most part, a whole LOT of Microsoft's ideas came from Apple, who have been an innovating force in the peecee industry from the very begining, and who still make outstanding products. If that role is replaced by freeware vendors who don't innovate things, but simply clone them and give them away for free, the entire sector will be damaged. Apple is the competition Microsoft needs, not clones of Apple."
Indeed, and a lot of Apple's ideas came from Xerox PARC. Apple's failure to compete actively with IBM for the business desktop market was the downfall of Apple. Once the business community adopted those silly early PCs for business apps, the critical mass soon dictated that serious development shift in that direction.
The early Mac, while innovative, was hardly a business machine, so it was relegated to personal desktops for some time. In the meantime, Microsoft managed to squeak by with its own graphical user interface which, since it ran on all those Intel-based desktops, just got adopted by business, despite its many flaws. The already available PC clone marketplace further drove the PC into the home marketplace. By the end of the 80's, it was clear that Apple was not going to be the PC of choice. Too expensive and not enough support from software publishers for the apps that people really needed to use. Graphics apps, yes, but not business apps. Even Microsoft's software for the Mac wasn't enough.
Software companies which made the shift to Windows survived. Companies which did not, did not. It was that simple.
Now, Apple, due to their critical mistakes in the 80's, is on the verge of becoming yet another casualty of the Microsoft machine. Sure, they'll still exist, but not as a real threat to anyone.
Linux? A hard core will continue, but the movement started too late, I'm afraid.
Oooooh-kay.
Personal prediction -- the "Uncomfortable Battle" will make both Linux and Apple stronger in the long run.
Sun's problems were much, much deeper and broader than their having to compete with Linux.
It's possible, although Linux isn't really converting many Windows shops now. The author mentions the difficulty many have seen in moving from Windows to Linux because the internal architechtures are dissimilar, whereas Linux shares the same basic command structure etc with Unix and OSX.
There's also the issue, perhaps greatest of all, that Linux is simply a clone of other already existing products, therefore it's 'new' features are almost always features that something else already has. Can the freeware conglomerate (Open Source Development Labs who manage the Linux kernel) take money from a variety of hardware vendors and build new and better features faster than Microsoft? Possibly, but so far they are only playing catch up.
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