"Putting aside the partisan stuff that doesn't matter much really - no candidate losing by two percentage points has much chance of carrying the electoral college..."
But a candidate losing by two percentage points carrying the electoral college (or House) has happened twice in the last 54 Presidential contests, in 1824 and 1876. Historically that works out to be about a 3.7% occurrence.
Originally posted by Torrie:
"As I said, it is practically near impossible for a candidate to win the electoral vote, while losing the popular vote by say by more than 51.5 to 48.5 of the major party vote, and even that is a stretch."
That exact occurrence happened in 1876 when Hayes(R) beat Tilden(D) in the electoral college while losing the "popular" vote by 3.02%. That makes the current odds of a possible recurrence around 1.85%...
Winning Percentage
Year Winner Electoral Vote "Popular" Vote Notes
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1824 Adams(6) 32.20% 30.92% Lost "popular vote" by 10.43%
1860 Lincoln 59.40% 39.82%
1912 Wilson 81.92% 41.84%
1992 Clinton 68.77% 43.01%
1968 Nixon 55.95% 43.42%
1856 Buchanan 58.80% 45.28%
1892 Cleveland(24) 62.39% 46.02%
1848 Taylor 56.20% 47.28%
1888 Harrison(23) 58.10% 47.82% Lost "popular" vote by 0.80%
2000 Bush(43) 50.37% 47.87% Lost "popular" vote by 0.51%
1876 Hayes 50.10% 47.95% Lost "popular" vote by 3.02%
1880 Garfield 58.00% 48.27%
1884 Cleveland(22) 54.60% 48.50% Was 22nd and 24th President
1996 Clinton 70.45% 49.23%
1916 Wilson 52.17% 49.24%
1844 Polk 61.80% 49.54%
1948 Truman 57.06% 49.55%
1960 Kennedy 56.42% 49.72% Questionable "popular" vote victory
1976 Carter 55.20% 50.08%
1980 Reagan 90.89% 50.75%
1836 Van Buren 57.80% 50.83%
1852 Pierce 85.80% 50.84%
1896 McKinley 60.63% 51.03%
1908 Taft 66.46% 51.57%
1900 McKinley 65.32% 51.64%
1868 Grant 72.80% 52.66%
1840 Harrison(9) 79.60% 52.88% Was grandfather of Harrison(23)
1988 Bush(41) 79.18% 53.37% Was father of Bush(43)
1944 Roosevelt(32) 81.36% 53.39%
1924 Coolidge 71.94% 54.04%
1832 Jackson 76.00% 54.23%
1940 Roosevelt(32) 84.56% 54.74%
1864 Lincoln 90.60% 55.02%
1952 Eisenhower 83.24% 55.18%
1872 Grant 78.10% 55.63%
1828 Jackson 68.20% 55.97%
1904 Roosevelt(26) 70.59% 56.42% Was cousin to Roosevelt(32)
1956 Eisenhower 86.06% 57.37%
1932 Roosevelt(32) 88.89% 57.41% Only four term President
1928 Hoover 83.62% 58.21%
1984 Reagan 97.58% 58.77%
1920 Harding 76.08% 60.32%
1972 Nixon 96.65% 60.67%
1936 Roosevelt(32) 98.49% 60.80%
1964 Johnson 90.33% 61.05%
1789 Washington 85.20% n/a No Opponent
1792 Washington 97.80% n/a No Opponent
1796 Adams(2) 51.40% n/a Was father of Adams(6)
1800 Jefferson 52.90% n/a Jefferson tied with Burr in EC.
1804 Jefferson 92.00% n/a
1808 Madison 69.30% n/a
1812 Madison 58.70% n/a
1816 Monroe 82.80% n/a
1820 Monroe 98.30% n/a No Opponent
Note: The "popular" vote only tracked since 1824.
Source: Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
dvwjr
See post 81, which is a response, sort of. :)