Posted on 06/03/2004 7:37:14 PM PDT by KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle
Let's see how the Clinton full court press this summer will play out. There are delusional people who voted for him twice. I wonder if we will see the witch nominated after a summer of Clinton-palooza book tours.
In any case, it will be interesting to see the next Gallup poll. Bush is making a comeback just as I said he would. Note the number of handwringers have significantly decreased in the past 2 weeks.
As the British say, at the end of the day, these will be the numbers: Bush: 57%, Kerry: 40%, Nader: 3%. Pubbies will hold the house and senate. Pubbies will pick-up seats is both houses! It will be another 2002 for the Democrats, only worse!
The media always keeps it "too close to call" till he last few days. Sells more ad time and papers. Think about it.
Neither canidate will get more then 54% of the vote tops (and I doubt either will get that).
At the same time this Elliots numbers showing Kerry winning with over 320 EV is crazy as well.
"Gore" States that are "in play" - MN,PA,WI and NM.
"Bush 2000" States that are "in play" (for Kerry) OH,NH,FL & WV.
That is where the race stands.
No they don't. When Clinton was running against Dole, they routinely portrayed Dole as extremely far behind when in reality he was just a few points back.
I hope you're right! If so, it would be an evening of much mirth and jollity as the Dems try to spin the loss.
If Bush could beat Gore when Gore had a (seemingly) good economy to run on, Bush should handily beat Kerry when Bush has a good economy to run on. Besides, Kerry is evil.
Iowa Electronic Markets ~ Current Markets 2004 US Presidential Vote Share Market Data
Refer to:
Results from a Dozen Years of Election Futures Markets Research
Berg, JE, R Forsythe, FD Nelson and TA Rietz, 2001
You have WAY too few Gore states in play.
" "Gore" States that are "in play" - MN,PA,WI and NM."
Iowa and Oregon should be obvious inclusions. Gore won both by fewer then 10,000 votes. Also, Bush has been polling even with Kerry in Michigan.
And while I wouldn't say they are 'in play' the same way the other states are, I honestly don't think California, Washington, or New Jersey are completely out. New Jersey has a LOT of 9/11 folks, and Bush has been polling within the margin of error in it (they also have an EXTREMELY unpopular D governor.), and the amount of new Republicans registered in California and Washington has been nuts. Who knows in California, especially if we can get Arnold off his butt to campaign for him.
Maybe Washington is wishful thinking (I live there), but we have registered more then 2.1 million new R's since 2002, we have a Gov. and Sen. race that are both expected to be hot, and it was only 50/45 last time, and that's with the early Florida call, which I am convinced caused Slade to lose his seat at the very least (well, that and some college students up west voting five times, but that's another story), and probably cost Bush a few percentage points.
Anyhow, all said and done, I think Bush will win the states he won before, plus win Penn and Wis and maybe another one or two.
While I agree Kerry sucks, and should be nowhere near the WH, he is FAR less evil and dangerous then Al Gore. Kerry is a opprotunistic liberal hack. Gore is a mentally unstable, narcisisstic demagogic idealog.
Very sensible observation you made there. I seriously think that NEITHER of them will get over 50% of the vote if Nader hangs tough.
Not only that .. but the "swing" states are leaning toward Bush .. and several of those which Gore won big have begun to build a lead for Bush .. and even CA is almost a virtual tie - while Gore won CA by 12 points.
Let these idiots think Kerry can win this .. I still do not believe that. If Hillary is not planning on running - then she cannot allow Kerry to win. It's that simple.
Answer: In August/September, 2002, Dick Gephardt, the Democrat minority leader of the house said the Democrats would pick-up forty house seats because of the "Enron" scandals. Other Democrats said GW Bush was toast. None of the pundits predicted the GOP romp that actually happened. In fact the Pubbies picked up six house seats and won back the senate! So, as all the ranting and hate put forth by the Democrats in 2002, the end result was a mistake of 46 seats by Mr. Gephardt. That is why he is no longer on the radar screen. Remember, this campaign has not really begun yet!
While I take a back seat to no one on this board, insofar as my burning desire to see GWB trounce the evil Kerry in '04 is concerned: the day THIS wretched, America-loathing backwater of a state we both live in (Washington) goes Republican in a Presidential election -- I'll happily come out to your house and hotwax your car. With my face. :)
IMHO the presidential debates will play a critical role.
Its soooo boring to listen to dopes who think that any rat will win Florida or Ohio or the whole election for that matter. When I hear someone say lurch will win, I ask "Based on what issues?" That brings silence.
I agree -- I think they'll hurt Kerry once he starts droning on about ... whatever.
I know it's unlikely, I got really bummed the other day when I found out we were one of the, what, 8 states(?), to go for Dukakis in 88, but still, I think it will be close, and I have etremely high hopes for Nethercutt and Rossi.
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