Posted on 06/02/2004 5:47:21 AM PDT by Darth Reagan
It is worrisome. I get the impression that people really need a good reason to vote FOR Bush, otherwise they may pull the lever for Kerry just out of desperation to try something different. And by "reason", I mean it has to be some kind of visceral thing, something they just feel right about doing. I hate to have to say it, but my guess is that many, perhaps the majority, tend to go with feelings rather than dispassionate judgment as to who is the better candidate. It's better to use rational judgment than qualitative "feel", but often if the electorate gets the "sense" that things are going well, they'll re-elect the incumbent. Conversely, if they "feel" that things are not going all that great, either for them personally or the country, they may lash out against current officeholders. The latter is what happened to Bush 41 in '92, the former for Clinton in '96. Bush can pull it out, but unfortunately some of the key components are somewhat out of his hands, the Iraq situation, the economy, and the possibility of another 9/11-style attack happening here.
Pinging the usual suspects.
Automated telephone polling in and of itself doesn't make the methodology flawed. SurveyUSA uses automated telephone polling and they've been one of the more reliable polling organizations of late. From what I understand, Rasmussen has conceded he used too tight a screening method in 2000. He has loosened it this year.
The only way LA becomes a battleground is if Kerry selects Breaux for VP. Frankly he is the one choice that scares me the most. He has a moderate image and is from the south.
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