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Nine states with large Jewish populations account for 212 of the 270 electoral votes a candidate will need to win the White House, according to an analysis by Steven Windmueller, director of the Jewish Institute of Religion at Hebrew Union College.     

While the two states with the largest Jewish populations — New York and California — will almost surely vote for the Democratic candidate, Florida, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Ohio, which hold 68 electoral votes, are up for grabs.     

In addition, the Jewish vote in Michigan, Nevada, Missouri and Arizona could swing the election in November.     

In 2000, Mr. Bush won Florida by less than 1 percent, lost Pennsylvania by 4.2 percent and was hammered in New Jersey by 16 percentage points. A new poll this month shows Mr. Bush and the presumptive Democratic nominee, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, running neck and neck in New Jersey.

This election has the potential to effect a genuine and lasting sea change in American electoral politics, insofar as Jewish voting allegiance is concerned.