Posted on 05/31/2004 9:41:30 PM PDT by LandOfLincolnGOP
June 1, 2004
Narrow loss will do, says Diedrich in S.D.
By Peter Savodnik
SIOUX FALLS, S.D. — Republican congressional hopeful Larry Diedrich is effectively conceding defeat in today’s South Dakota special House election before the polling booths even open.
The former state senator dramatically ratcheted down expectations during an interview with The Hill at his campaign headquarters, saying he would be happy to lose to Democrat Stephanie Herseth by only five percentage points.
He has trailed her by seven or more points in recent polls, and, if he loses, it would be the GOP’s second special-election defeat this year. In February, Alice Forgy Kerr (R) lost to Ben Chandler (D) in Kentucky’s 6th District; it was the first time since 1991 that a Democrat won a Republican-held seat in a special election.
The battle for the House seat will continue tomorrow because the winner of the special election must face the voters for a second time, in November. Both Diedrich and Herseth will be running in the fall election, so today’s contest amounts to a precursor of their upcoming race for a full, two-year term.
“I think as long as it’s close, I don’t think I have a lot of opposition at all,” Diedrich said.
Pointing out that he was 30 points behind Herseth when he entered the race in late January, Diedrich said that as his name recognition has jumped, so have his poll numbers.
What matters, Diedrich said, is that South Dakotans see that momentum is on his side. If he loses by a narrow margin, he added, voters will think the June 1 election came too soon.
Democrats dismiss Diedrich’s logic, countering that the Republican has all the advantages going into the special election. Not only does the GOP maintain a significant voter-registration edge in South Dakota, but in today’s 25 state House and Senate primaries, there are far more competitive Republican than Democratic races. Strategists from both parties said that should drive up Republican turnout more than usual.
Also helping Diedrich is John Thune (R), who is challenging Sen. Tom Daschle (D). Thune opted to stay off the airwaves so that he could focus on fundraising and let Diedrich introduce himself to voters, said Thune’s campaign manager, Dick Wadhams. Thune has $2.5 million on hand, Wadhams said. Herseth, by contrast, has had to compete for attention with Daschle, who has been running television ads for months.
“If Stephanie wins Tuesday, she’ll be a heavy, heavy favorite in November, especially once she comes to Congress and follows through on her commitment to be a strong, independent voice for South Dakota,” said Greg Speed, spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC).
Many South Dakota Democrats also noted that Daschle has played a surprisingly minor role in the race, particularly compared to 2002, when the Senate minority leader vigorously campaigned for Sen. Tim Johnson (D-S.D.).
None of Daschle’s 13 campaign workers who cover Rapid City and the surrounding Black Hills, for example, has been canvassing precincts for Herseth, said Judy Olson Duhamel, the state Democratic Party chairwoman.
Other leading Democrats in the state said that Daschle had appeared publicly with Herseth — most notably at a rally last month in Sioux Falls that also included Johnson. However, they added that Daschle has not put his statewide organization to work for her.
“I think clearly their priority right now is to re-elect Tom Daschle,” Duhamel said. “In terms of the physical labor, the overt operation, I don’t think there’s a lot here for Stephanie.”
But some Democrats, including Russ Levsen, Herseth’s press secretary, said the McCain-Feingold campaign-finance law, adopted last year, imposes limits on what Daschle can do.
“In 2002, we had a coordinated campaign where we were in the same office as Tim Johnson,” Levsen said, referring to Herseth’s House race in the last cycle. Now, he added, the campaigns are much more separate.
Still, there might be some truth to a theory bandied about by Republicans that Daschle doesn’t want Herseth to win, said Sharon Stroschein, the Democratic National Committeewoman for South Dakota.
According to this reasoning, Daschle will have an easier time winning a fourth term if the congressional delegation is not all Democratic. Otherwise, the thinking goes, Thune can make the case to voters that they need a Republican in Washington to make sure South Dakotans have the ear of the GOP-controlled Congress and the White House.
“I’m sure [Thune] would use that argument, and I’m sure it would work to some degree,” Stroschein said. “I’m sure the Daschle people have to be thinking about that.”
Daschle campaign spokesman Dan Pfeiffer maintained that the senator had done everything possible to help Herseth. That includes $10,000 from his leadership PAC, DASHPAC, and $2,000 from his Senate campaign account. Also, Pfeiffer said, Daschle recorded an automated phone message that went to thousands of Democrats and independents on behalf of Herseth; e-mailed thousands of supporters reminding them to vote today; made two campaign stops with Herseth yesterday, in his hometown of Aberdeen and at the Cheyenne River Reservation; and appeared on campaign literature with Herseth.
While Daschle’s campaign staff is limited in what it can do, Pfeiffer added, the majority of those people volunteered to work for Herseth over the Memorial Day weekend, which they had off.
Diedrich said he has been surprised by Daschle’s less-than-prominent role in the House race.
WHAT A MORON !
But SD has really got to get on the ball. Daschle and Johnson are disgraces.
Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a LOSER.
Absolutely. Because even if a small margin loss is his best case scenario, this is a sure way to INCREASE his margin of loss because reports of this story will discourage Republicans from going to the polls. What a dummy...
Nope, I think what he is saying is that the special election is basically the preseason or exhibition election. It does only give the winner 7 months in office.
If they were going to split the elections, which one would you rather the GOP win?
Well, that depends on how many SD papers and TV stations pick the story up for tomorrow morning, doesn't it? I bet I know what Herseth's folks are faxing to the newsdesks tonight...
Oh, I misunderstood your point! Sorry.
What an unsmooth move.. If this gets around the Pubbies will just stay home and give Herseth a big landslide victory. Heck, some of them might even switch from Diedrich to Herseth since there's always some number of (clueless!) voters who just vote for who they think looks like a winner..
To speak to your actual point though, The Hill might not permit republishing but Diedrich's actual comments are now part of the public domain. I would be extremely surprised if South Dakota news sources don't discuss them in covering the election.
How so?
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