It will be interesting to see how they fare in a Presidential race. They certainly don't track with the polls. I hope they're right.
The 2000 result sure didn't track with the polls either. Looking at the State list, nothing looked odd to me. if their numbers are even close, it's Dubya whuppin' kerry like a rented mule on Election Day.
I disagree with this remark. They don't fluctuate or hang on every poll, but their overall results have been and are in harmony with the polls IMO. They are showing a close race, with Bush having a slight lead, with that lead having lessened a bit since March.
Here is evidence Bush is still ahead by a slight amount:
1) Dales web site, which tracks all the state polls, gives Bush an effective popular vote advantage of about 1.5%.
2) The Rasmussen poll, which doesn't include Nader as a factor and uses a loose Likely Voter screen (both assumptions which favor Kerry) continue to show a dead heat (meaning Bush probably has a slight lead).
3) The Iowa trading site also shows Bush with a slight lead (and actually slightly lengthening the lead recently).
4) The most recent Fox poll, although it shows Bush and Kerry tied overall, shows Bush with a 6 point lead in the battleground states.
5) From an EV standpoint, the latest Ohio poll (by the most accurate state polling firm last time around) shows Bush ahead by 6 points. There are many reasons to expect Bush to take Florida this time around. Bush is doing well is several Gore states from last time (PA, MI, OR, WI, IA, MN) and only NH right now, according to most recent polls, looks like possibly flipping, so Bush looks to be slightly ahead from an EV perspective as well.
One could make an argument that Kerry has a slight lead, but it's a tenuous argument, certainly not strong enough to suggest that tradesports.com results "certainly don't track with the polls."