Big budget poll bounce for Howard By Dennis Shanahan, Political editor June 01, 2004
JOHN Howard and the Coalition have bounced back to an election-winning lead three weeks after the budget - their best position since Mark Latham took over as Labor leader.
In what appears to be a delayed reaction to the budget, there has been a startling 13 percentage-point turnaround in the primary vote, giving the Coalition a 10-point lead over Labor.
Despite continuing bad publicity about prisoner abuse in Iraq, the uproar over MPs' travel entitlements started by Liberal MP Trish Draper and speculation about the Prime Minister's leadership, the Government has leapt over the ALP.
In the past two weeks, Coalition support has jumped from 41 per cent to 47 per cent, its highest primary vote in a year, according to a Newspoll survey taken last weekend exclusively for The Australian.
Labor's primary vote fell from 44 per cent to 37 per cent, its lowest support since November last year, when Simon Crean's leadership was under siege.
The two-party-preferred vote of 53 per cent for the Coalition and 47 per cent for Labor would have easily returned the Howard Government for a fourth term, if an election had been held last weekend.
Labor's confidence was boosted by the Newspoll taken the weekend after the May 11 budget showed there was no expected bounce for the Government, with the Coalition vote slipping from 42 to 41 per cent and Labor support rising from 42 to 44 per cent.
The Government had hoped for a poll boost after the $52billion giveaway budget with its tax cuts and family benefits, but immediately became embroiled in destabilising speculation about Peter Costello's leadership ambitions, the US abuse of Iraqi prisoners and the travel rorts backlash.
Mr Howard suggested there could be a lag in public support for the Coalition after the budget, and the Coalition's position is now similar to its standing after the budget that preceded the 2001 election, when support fell initially but lifted later.
Support for Mr Latham also appears to be declining, particularly in relation to the choice between him and Mr Howard as prime minister.
On the question of preferred prime minister, Mr Howard's support rose last weekend from 50 per cent to 54 per cent, while Mr Latham's was unchanged on 32 per cent.
Mr Howard's lead of 22 points is the biggest over the Opposition Leader since Mr Latham's first weekend in the post after succeeding Mr Crean as ALP leader.
Since March this year, when Mr Latham virtually equalled Mr Howard as preferred prime minister - 42 per cent against 43 per cent - Mr Latham's support has steadily declined by 10 points to 32 per cent.
Satisfaction with the way Mr Latham is doing his job as Opposition Leader has been erratic but also trending down since his record high of 66 per cent in March. Last weekend it slipped to 54 per cent, down from 57 per cent.
Mr Howard's satisfaction generally has been climbing incrementally since March and a rise of three points to 57per cent last weekend is his highest since Mr Latham became Labor leader.
Despite the huge turnaround in support for the major parties there was little change in the support for the minor parties and independents, suggesting that some voters are switching their support from Labor to the Coalition.