I don't think China is going to wait until 2006. Chen has been too outspoken. IMO China will act very quickly to attack the ROC. IMO they will do so when the US is "occupied" elsewhere- as in responding to AQ attacks, wmd in Iraq, etc.
Plenty plausible to me.
But I think they will comply with the puppet masters and wait until AFTER USA CITIES ARE IN RUINS etc.