Bush leads Kerry in new PD poll (Ohio: Bush 47% Kerry 41%)

Cleveland Plain Dealer ^ | 5/29/03 | Mark Naymik

[JohnnyZ]

Regarding Charlotte/Mecklenburg ...

The electoral trends will depend on how well urban planning goes. If the city experiences white flight, its Democrat core will slowly expand outward. But it's not like Dilworth and South Park are suddenly going to go Democrat, and there's still plenty of impetus to live close to "uptown". People are generally fleeing the city for cheaper houses because of the rich folks, rather than running away from the poor. The west/southwest is becoming ghetto, I'll give you that, more apartments than houses, but perhaps the reverse in the north. Will the booming Hispanic population join the Plantation, or will they follow the JorgeBush/DanRamirez lead to Republicanism? If you expand to Mecklenburg, there's still plenty of fast-growing upscale areas that are outgrowing Charlotte's Democrat areas.

2002 was a good year here for Republicans. We'll see how things go this year.

[AntiGuv]

OK, I'm back. I have the hard numbers for the Charlotte metro area (election returns & registration) but I'll need to work up the percentages real quick. Before I do that, a couple quick comments.

First, Statesville (Iredell County) is definitely not part of the Charlotte metro. Hickory/Statesville are their own little metro area, if one wants to call it that..

I would personally question whether Salisbury (Rowan Co) is really in the Charlotte metro area, but it is generally assigned to it. It's right between Charlotte & Winston-Salem, but hey, whatever!

As for the York County, that's in South Carolina so it's not included in my figures.

The figures I have are for Mecklenburg, Gaston, Cabarrus, Lincoln, Rowan, and Union Counties between 1992-2004. That's the Greater Charlotte Metropolitan Area. Even without working up the percentages I can tell you that we'll find..

There will be an accelerating GOP drift almost entirely attributable to Union County, with a lesser degree Rowan County. Leaving out Union County, the City of Charlotte and the suburbs more or less cancel one another out.

Let me go get the 1980 presidential numbers too since that came up and then I'll post some figures.

[Torie]

Yes, I most certainly do. It captures a trend perhaps, but the absolute numbers are BS.

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

Hey cbn,

A few days ago, some (I'm not you) were a little depressed Now it looks as thought things are looking GOOD. IF Dub takes Ohio, PA, and keeps it close in Mich., this election will be closer to 1988. Of course CA. went for GHWB in '88.

[Torie]

If you have 1988, I would like to see those figures. Thanks.

[Howlin]

Well, thank goodness! I was worried!

BTW, I do Zogby interactive polls; I lie on every page.

[AntiGuv]

OK, here's the first set of numbers. The registration numbers for Cabarrus, Gaston, Lincoln, Mecklenburg, Rowan, and Union combined. In summary there's a steady decline of DEM registration and a stable level of GOP registration. However, it's worth noting that Union County makes up most of that with a sharp rise in GOP voters.

April 1994

Democratic: 51.20%
Republican: 38.73%

April 1996

Democratic: 47.90%
Republican: 39.62%

April 1998

Democratic: 45.06%
Republican: 39.17%

April 2000

Democratic: 43.22%
Republican: 38.89%

May 2002

Democratic:41.91%
Republican: 38.84%

May 2004

Democratic: 40.70%
Republican: 38.90%

From April 1994 to May 2004 the percentage of registered Democrats has decreased 10.5%; the percentage of registered Republicans has increased 0.17%

[Torie]

My sense of humor is very, very dry. You lie to Zogby? How naughty of you.

[AntiGuv]

Yes, I can include 1988 presidential voting figures. I'll post 1980, 1988, 1992, 1996, and 2000 in a little bit.

[spokeshave]

"These polls, especially Zogby's are all over the map.."

I think Zogby is splashing the Heinz 57 around

[line drive to right]

We must really work for President Bush in Ohio. The Cleveland Plain Dealer is on a mission to remove the president from office. One of the PD's columnists, the bizarre Connie Schultz, is engaged to Sherrod Brown, one of the most Marxist-leaning members of the U.S. Congress.

[Jorge]

"Huh? The economy is growing at its fastest pace in 20 years and this bozo doesn't think Bush is doing enough for the economy. More proof the Dems prey on ignorance."

The National economy doesn't mean a thing. It's the LOCAL economy that matters.

Really? So nobody cares about policies that have America leading the western industrialized nations in the economic recovery, all they really care about is their own little local economy.

So even if their state was doing great, if their little town lost jobs or they are not personally doing well, they will consider Bush a failure EVEN THOUGH the rest of the nation is doing great.
How small minded and self centered can you get?

[Smartass]

[familyop]

That's a good analysis on your part in comment #16.

[AntiGuv]

OK, here are the past six presidential elections. I also have figures for the past three governor and past four senate elections if you want me to post those.

1980 President

J Carter: 125,319 44.46%
Reagan: 145,253 51.54%

1984 President

Mondale: 109,496 32.85%
Reagan: 223,162 66.95%

1988 President

Dukakis: 124,566 36.53%
Bush 41: 215,393 63.17%

1992 President

Clinton: 162,946 38.07%
Bush 41: 204,348 47.74%

1996 President

Clinton: 170,041 42.09%
BobDole: 206,898 51.21%

2000 President

AlGore: 200,669 41.17%
Bush 43: 282,974 58.05%

 

 

J Carter: 125,319 44.46%
Mondale: 109,496 32.85%
Dukakis: 124,566 36.53%
Clinton: 162,946 38.07%
Clinton: 170,041 42.09%
AlGore: 200,669 41.17%

Reagan: 145,253 51.54%
Reagan: 223,162 66.95%
Bush 41: 215,393 63.17%
Bush 41: 204,348 47.74%
BobDole: 206,898 51.21%
Bush 43: 282,974 58.05%

[AntiGuv]

Might I add that I think your point would've been better made using the Triangle (Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill) than using Charlotte Metro.

[Torie]

Thanks so much. I look at 1988 versus 2000, which I think are comparable elections. Bush 2 carried NC by a couple of points less than Bush 1 in 1988. The drop in the Charlotte metro area is more. So, I say, slight secular Dem trend. That is true through most of the south in the larger metro areas. It is more than made it by the big GOP swing in the rural counties.

[Torie]

Well everybody knows that area is going "Commie Lib." That assertion would not have been very interesting. :)

[Torie]

Another way, and probably a better way, to look at it, is that Bush 2 lagged Bush 1 by 4 percentage points, and in metro Charlotte lagged by 5 points. God, I was close to being wrong! But the good news is that I was not. :)

[Dan from Michigan]

So nobody cares about policies that have America leading the western industrialized nations in the economic recovery, all they really care about is their own little local economy.

To put it bluntly, yeah. Especially in areas of "company towns" dependant on one major industry. Flint's been ailing for years. Highland Park is a ghost town. That's been happening since the 70's, but are two of the most well known.

they will consider Bush a failure EVEN THOUGH the rest of the nation is doing great.

Many will(not all). Most I think blame them all(A reason why outsiders - like governors, become presidents. They are change from Washington). This more commonly happens on the gubenatorial level but can happen nationwide too(Engler was loved in 1994, but not as much in 02). It's a big reason why I make sure Kerry's NAFTA vote is mentioned over and over again in Michigan.

Most in the state knows someone who is laid off. Those that don't know someone who knows someone. This effect them a lot more than reading a bunch of numbers in the paper or seeing them announced on TV. Add the outsourcing reports(Greenville especially), and that's where most of the blame goes. This trickle downs to rest of the region as well.

Luckily for Bush, Kerry is part of the establishment.