I don't think so.
A much more likely explanation is that the leak of the existence of the tape was not planned and the tape itself is damaging to "The Cause", namely the defeat of George Bush in 2004.
Time will tell if this theory is correct. If it is then the Berg family, Leftist Scum that they appear to be, will not allow it to be released. One can safely assume that Moore would anticipate this result and would use it for cover and a natural excuse for not disclosing the content of the 20 minute clip. On the other hand, it is hard to believe that someone not perfectly loyal to Moore will have seen the footage and the content, if not the actual video itself, will eventually leak out and escape the control of the Moore Spin Machine.
>> A much more likely explanation is that the leak of the existence of the tape was not planned and the tape itself is damaging to "The Cause", namely the defeat of George Bush in 2004. <<
I think the whole bruhaha with Miramax refusing to release the film is a red herring. They are in cahoots with Moore. This allows the shlockumentary to get high praise and awards without being seen (Cannes). It also gets lots of *free* publicity.
I expect some "brave" company to release the film in early October just in time for many American voters to see it right before November 2.