Posted on 05/26/2004 12:07:26 AM PDT by conservative in nyc
Poll puts Herseth in lead
With less than one week remaining in the campaign for South Dakota's U.S. House seat, Democrat Stephanie Herseth, who ran for the same seat in 2002, has maintained a comfortable lead over Republican Larry Diedrich, a poll shows. But Diedrich has been able to chip away at the 16-point lead Herseth held six weeks ago.
Herseth leads Diedrich 52 percent to 41 percent, according to a poll of 503 likely voters conducted May 19 and 20 by Zogby International of Utica, N.Y., for South Dakota media outlets, including the Rapid City Journal. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent.
Seven percent remain undecided.
Diedrich, 46, and Herseth, 33, are running to serve the last seven months of former Rep. Bill Janklow's House term. Janklow resigned Jan. 20 after a manslaughter conviction. The special election is Tuesday, June 1.
Both Herseth and Diedrich said the poll shows them well-positioned in the campaign's final days.
Herseth spokesman Russ Levsen said the poll shows that Diedrich's substantial early gains have been harder to come by in recent weeks. Diedrich rose from about 30 percent support in February, when he was largely unknown, to 41 percent in this poll. Levsen said it is much tougher for candidates to close a gap from 40 percent to get the more than 50 percent needed for victory.
"I think this race has settled in. There are very few undecideds. People are where they are, and Stephanie is enjoying solid support," Levsen said. "I think it also drives home that after some negative attacks from Larry Diedrich, South Dakotans appreciate her positive approach on the issues."
Diedrich said the poll shows he is within striking distance, and he plans no change in strategy in his campaign's final stretch.
"We're comfortable that we're in the game. We're really right where we hoped to be, right in the thick of things. I'll be out meeting as many people as possible the next seven days," Diedrich said. "It will be a matter of who turns out the vote. In just one week, we'll have the real poll numbers."
Levsen agrees that the race is not over.
"We do expect this will be a close race," he said.
Barely more than half — 51 percent — of poll respondents said they had seen or heard negative advertising in the House race. Another 47 percent said they had seen no such ads, and 2 percent were unsure.
The effect of any advertising perceived to be negative seems weighted in Herseth's favor. Twenty-two percent said the ads made them less likely to vote for Diedrich, and 18 percent said the ads made them more likely to vote for Herseth. At the same time, 6 percent said the ads made them more likely to vote for Diedrich, and 2 percent said the ads made them less likely to vote for Herseth.
More than half said the ads either made no difference — 47 percent — or said they weren't sure what effect the ads would have — 6 percent.
Early in the race, Herseth made negative campaigning and her belief that it shouldn't be done an issue. She hit back hard when Diedrich ran a TV ad saying she did not support making federal tax cuts permanent while he did, saying her Republican opponent was not committed to "a truthful campaign."
It won't be heartburn over negative advertising that determines the outcome, those involved in the race and political analysts say. Everyone agrees that voter turnout will determine the outcome, despite Herseth's seemingly solid lead.
"By the very nature of how special elections work and the fact this special is taking place the day after Memorial Day, turnout could be very volatile. Events may take likely voters and turn them into nonvoters, and the other way around," Amy Walter, who tracks U.S. House races for the Cook Political Report, said. "The Herseth folks should not be sitting comfortably thinking this is in the bag. Of course, I'd rather be Stephanie Herseth. She still has the advantage going into June 1."
University of South Dakota political-science professor William Richardson declares voter turnout "the most important issue on June 1."
"You have to get those voters out, and they have to vote the way they said they would vote. Those are huge ‘ifs' for all candidates," Richardson said. "It's still very positive news (for Herseth), no question. But that lead is dependent on individuals actually going to the polls."
Richardson said special election turnout is generally low but that the attention to the U.S. House race and state legislative primary elections in some parts of the state could boost turnout this time.
"A number of those local contests will be generating their own turnout," he said.
Poll respondent Marilyn Voelker-Tucek, a 63-year-old freelance writer from Mitchell, said she is voting for Diedrich because he is anti-abortion and Herseth supports legalized abortion. Only pro-life candidates get her vote, and if all candidates in a race pass that test, she compares them on other issues, Voelker-Tucek said.
"Diedrich is in agriculture, is a farmer. That also impressed me," she said.
The lifelong Catholic said the Catholic Church's increasing vocalism on the abortion issue hasn't influenced her stance.
"It's always been that way," she said. "My parents and grandparents, more than anything, inspired in me the sanctity of all life."
Don O'Neill, a 72-year-old retiree from Watertown, will vote for Herseth.
"I've talked to Stephanie, and I just feel very comfortable with her. Diedrich, I don't think he's telling the whole truth," said O'Neill, who voted for Herseth in 2002. "I was pleased with the way she ran that campaign."
Contact Denise Ross at 394-8438 or denise.ross@rapidcityjournal.com
This Article was published online on Wednesday, May 26, 2004
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1142266/posts?page=9
Zogby special sauce?
Election is on - 06/01/04
Herseth 52% - Diedrich 41%
Zogby Poll
MoE+/-4.5% (Likely Voters) 05/19-20/04
Herseth 47% - Diedrich 44% (DV)
Herseth 49% - Diedrich 40% - (LV)
KELO Poll for Keloland.com
MoE+/-4 (Likely and "Definitely" Voters) 05/10-12/04
Herseth 53.3% - Diedrich 37.1%
Zogby Poll
MoE+/-4.5% (Likely Voters) 03/27-28/04
Herseth 58% - Diedrich 29%
Mason Dixox Poll for Keloland.com
MoE+/-3.5% (Reg Voters) 02/07/04
Zogby sauce
Although this is an internet poll I an interested in the results being that I voted for Nader in it 2 times and GWB 3 times :-)
Not interested enough though to pay the $99.
We'll be able to test the sauce out soon enough, unless he issues one of those polls the night before the election showing a "dramatic last minute shift"..
where u been ? Zog sauce bben out for 2 days now.
-----
Battleground States Poll: (Kerry is ahead in 12/16 Zogby sauced battleground state polls)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1141500/posts
Whats going on up there in South Dakota? The entire delegation democrat?
Thune should have ran for his old House seat.
OK, let's do a little guesstimating:
Zogby has Herseth up 52%-41% among likely voters. This poll was conducted on 5/19 and 5/20, almost two weeks before the election (not one week before), and before Tim Johnson's "Taliban Republicans" comment.
Simultaneously, Zogby polled South Dakotans on the Senate race between Daschle and Thune, and found Daschle to be up by 52%-39% among likely voters. This result is far worse for Thune than other recent independent polls, which place the race at a dead heat. There is no doubt in my mind that some "Zogby sauce" was added to this poll. Zogby probably adds his "sauce" in three ways: (i) selecting the pool of subjects, (ii) determining whether or not they are "likely voters" and (iii) leaning on the "leaners" to select a candidate. I don't know how exactly Zogby added his sauce in the Senate poll, but I believe that the "sauce" added 4% to Daschle and subtracted 8% from Thune, which, once adjusted, would result in a much-more-believable 48% for Daschle and 47% for Thune. Since Zogby polled the same voters for both the House and Senate races, and since he almost certainly applied the same "sauce," a similar adjustment of his Herseth-Diedrich results would yield 48% for Herseth and 49% for Diedrich. Now, I'm not saying that Diedrich is up by 1% among likely voters in SD, but even if Zogby onlt added 50% as much "sauce" to the House poll as he did to the Senate poll, Herseth's lead would be a slim 50%-45% among "likely voters" (polled close to two weeks before the election), and since a special election held on the day after Memorial Day will likely have very low turnout, it is anybody's guess who will come out on top on Tuesday.
I, for one, will go out on a limb and predict a Diedrich victory by 51%-49%.
"Thune should have ran for his old House seat."
I can't figure this race...sorry for once I have no clue
Anything can happen at this point. I think that turnout will be the most important factor. Which party has more competitive primaries for the state legislature? Such contests, while under the national radar, can influence voter turnout.
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