[Coop]

Not if his turnout is sufficiently larger.

[JasonC]

Sufficiently? If he gets 48% of independents maybe, but that is exactly the "close to 50" I said. If he gets only 30 or 40 percent of independents, no achievable turnout differential is going to win him the election. The base groups on both sides are close in size and both are highly motivated this year. Better turnout might bring a few percent overall, a margin of victory. But 90-95% of the variance in "winner" will be explained by "percent of independents". That is just how these things work. Swing voters decide elections.