Nothing really counts until the debates. You wait until people get a good, close look at Kerry next to Bush. He's about the most unappealing candidate
ever. And even Bush's enemies agree he's likable.
Sad as it may be, that sways more voters than anything.
I agree that Bush will do better the more people see of Kerry. He will run under the banner "I'm not Bush". For the rest, he'd prefer to be a completely blank sheet of paper. But the election is more likely to be a referendum on Bush's Iraq performance than anything else. That is what Kerry wants, and it is mostly what he will get.