Posted on 05/25/2004 12:11:52 AM PDT by kattracks
May 25, 2004 -- GEORGE W. Bush is a high-stakes player, a political gambler. And last night he took a fantastically bold gamble: In the teeth of bad polls, an atmosphere of panic in his own party and the barely concealed glee of his rivals . . . he has decided to stand pat.He didn't change course last night. He didn't use the occasion to announce elevated troop levels or faster elections or any of the panacea urged upon him over the past few weeks (including by me).
In other words, he is betting his presidency on the soundness of his approach and its prospects for success.
For there is no question now that Iraq is and will be (barring another terrorist catastrophe) the only issue in the presidential election. Bush has powerhouse economic numbers that any politician would kill for, and still more than 60 percent in every national poll say that America is on the "wrong track."
That's solely because of Iraq. And in a way, there's something heartening about it. The American people are identifying themselves and their country's fortunes with the progress or perceived lack of progress in Iraq. They're not just floating away on a tide of good news. The nation is at war, and the nation is taking that war seriously.
There would be no reason for Americans to believe that things were going well in Iraq after all the bad news these past weeks, from the prison scandal to the confusing pullback from Fallujah to the even more confusing raid on Ahmed Chalabi's house.
Left-wing policy analyst Ruy Texieira said last year that the danger posed to Bush by a poor economy was not that he would appear out of touch (as his father did) but that he would appear incompetent. Texieira may have gotten it right even though he got the subject wrong. If the American people judge that Bush is totally incompetent in his handling of Iraq, they might well take a chance on John Kerry in his stead.
The speech's purpose was to address and answer that concern about his competence. That's why it was so long and so detailed, with a five-step plan for political change leading up to direct elections of Iraqi leaders at the start of 2005. The president sounded stalwart and engaged, aware of all the moving parts and gear-shifts that will be necessary in the coming months.
Bush's decision to stay on course may not simply be an example of stubbornness. The fact is that the news from the battlefield in Iraq these past five or six days has been remarkably good. The forces commanded and directed by the thug-cleric Muqtada al-Sadr are on the run or nearly destroyed in three different cities.
Sadr's uprising two months ago was the moment at which even passionate supporters of the war and proponents of the success in achieving civil order began to grow terrified that somehow the United States might actually lose in Iraq. So shouldn't the fact that we're routing him be grounds for some optimism?
It's very meaningful that other Shiite clerics in the city of Najaf now feel safe enough to issue what must be judged an astounding denunciation of Sadr in the past few days.
As reported on the brilliant Healing Iraq blog (healingiraq.blogspot.com), Najaf clerics laid the blame for the entry of U.S. forces into that holy city: "It is the movement of Sayyid Muqtada [Sadr] that has encouraged the occupiers to cross the red lines," the senior clerics in Najaf wrote. "And it is clear that the organization of Sayyid Muqtada - and whoever follows the Sadrist movement - were the first to violate the sanctity of" the city's holiest shrine.
The president said that "history is moving and it will tend toward hope or tend toward tragedy." At a moment of great political peril for him, Bush is remaining calm.
He's placed his bet.
E-mail: podhoretz@nypost.com
Thank the dear Lord we don't have Willy the weasel or Johnny the flip flop handling this.
Regards,
I agree, as far as the three of us go. And some others. But where will the Republicans be? Do you really think that, faced with a treasonous bunch of rat bastards trying to take this country down the road to destruction by misinformation and lies, they are going to stand up and demand complete destruction of the enemy?
Personally, I think our politicians are comfortable in DC. If there were to be an uprising, they would 'plead for calm'. They would 'condemn the violence'. They would 'speak out against the actions of those who would work against democracy'. They would be intimidated by the press.
Those who engaged in an uprising for the preservation of the Constitution, in the tradition of the founding fathers, would be branded 'domestic terrorists', and the politicians (I mean our politicians) would not legitimize it by their endorsement. Let's face it, most of the Bill of Rights is a dead letter at this point anyway.
We need to elect people with guts first, and I don't see very many of them on the tickets this fall.
Just my cynical take.
Can you imagine the number of flip-flops we would have experienced by now? He would have taken the "zig zag" route to Baghdad, changing course at each critism offered by armchair generals.
To think of a man who can't even be forthcoming about owning an SUV running ANY war makes me shudder.
Yep, now for my optimistic take on this election-- I see the Old MEdia as growing increasingly irrelevant. The masses get their news from Entertainment Tonight, the dinosaurs, soon to be extinct, watch network TV and read the papers, and the new generation finds it on the net, or hears it on talk radio.
The more time goes by, the more the liberal facade of lies crumbles.
Good catch.
"A democracy [is] the only pure republic, but impracticable beyond the limits of a town." --Thomas Jefferson to Isaac H. Tiffany, 1816. ME 15:65
Mob rule never was a blessing to anybody.
Bush is a poker player, and I STRONGLY believe this is his ace in the hole. But first, Iraq takes its sovereignty on June 30 - one month away. At that time, the terrorist activities AND the strong-armed brutal tactics necessary to communicate admonitions to "please stop" in the necessary language, will be the responsibilities of Iraqis. We can step back and say "Their country, their methods."
Meanwhile, we will be surveilling and patrolling the Syrian borders, intercepting infiltrating terrorists. More denunciations of Syrian sabotage will follow. Then, in the fall, we will conduct a lightning Special Forces raid in Syrian-controlled territory (Syria or Lebanon), to hit a terrorist camp - and find massive stockpiles of Saddam's WMD's...
I have zero inside information - but I'd bet the election on it, as we all are anyway.
Then how come so many polls are still telling us "it's the economy, stupid?"
Nicely put in perspective. I share your belief.
I don't recall the Administration talking about democracy much, if any, over in Iraq. That seems to be a media fascination. The Administration keeps emphasizing freedom, which I think is quite appropriate. I doubt we'll see something resembling a real democracy in Iraq in the short term, if ever.
exactly correct, and well said. A peaceful Iraq may not be a democracy as we know it but the concept will grow.
While no war is perfect and mistakes are made, GWB will go down in history as a great Pres.
Although I have big disagreements with him on domestic stuff, this war is too important for me not to support him.
President Bush last night referred to Iraq having a representative government. Keep in mind that WE have a representative government also. Best of goals IMO.
That's my feeling also.
Americans don't mind the expression of opinion, apparently even when the opinion is biased yet cloaked in the pretense of objectivity, they will tolerate that, but THEY DON'T LIKE BEING LIED TO, and there have been so many events recently which have exposed lies on the part of the media. There's a profound loss of credibility here, something we've known all along, just now surfacing for the apolitical masses, IMHO.
Well said, and I'm glad I'm not the only one feeling that way.
Now just a minute, hobson, don't you know that John F. Kerry earned 3 Purple Hearts, a Bronze Star, and a Silver Star during his 2 illustrious tours of combat duty in RVN? Come on, man, the Senator has a chest full of medals. What does that draft-evading dolt from Texas have, anyway? We need the war hero JFK to run this war...
"Unlike Viet-Nam the libs have struck too early, there is still a solid 50% of this country that understands the danger of losing in Iraq and civil war is just one terrorist attack away."
That's a fact.
"I have always been a fairly level headed conservative but this election season and the way the WORLD and the American left is willing to destroy this country just to elect a democrat has radicalized me to an extent I never dreamed possible."
Yup.
Re: Your Post #10: Good points.
"Just my cynical take."
Cynical, yes; but with a great deal of reason thrown in for seasoning.
"Then how come so many polls are still telling us 'it's the economy, stupid?'
That's the media's default mode. They can always count on a number of voters who will vote their pocketbooks, no matter what. Just convince those folks that things are not going as well for them as they could be, and they will pull the lever against the incumbent.
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