It might be bruising but Sharpton doesn't have a chance if black politics in NY are the same as in Texas. In Texas, black political activists, preachers, and community leaders are too jealous of their own power to support other blacks for office except in districts that are 97% black. There's only so much walkin-round money, grants, and government contracts to be had.
One of my elderly Black friends called me before the Dem primary to ask who she should vote for for pres. I told her she should vote for Al Sharpton and she said, "Who's that?"
I certainly don't think Al is going to win the Rat nomination in NY in '06, but look at what he's got for an advantage. All that free media publicity, and because he ran for President in '04, all the Tawana Brawley stuff just became "old news" and off the table!
I envision a scenario where enough black voters in NY are steamed at Hillary to cause themselves to either not vote at all, or write in Al in November, '06. That tips the balance to a Republican, especially if its Giuliani.
How bright do you think Hillary's star will shine for '08 if she loses her Senate seat in '06? She'll just be part of the miserable failure of Rats during Bush's midyear sweep where he takes fillibuster-proof control of the Senate!