Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: AntiGuv
You should read up on the differences between Zogby International and Zogby Interactive polls. That's problem one with trying to take this as anything more than an interesting thing to note.

Also, some of your numbers below are wrong (such as California, where the final Zogby poll had it tied.)

Link.

Zogby's accuracy record is subpar.

To wit:

Coleman (R) 45% Mondale (D) 51% Zogby 11/3-11/4 (Mondale did not even come close)

Allard (R) 46% Strickland (D) 51% Zogby 11/2-11/4 (Allard won comfortably)

Cornyn (R) 50% Kirk (D) 46% Zogby 11/3-11/4 50% 46% (Cornyn won huge)

Chambliss (R) 47% Cleland (D) 50% Zogby 11/3-11/4 (Cleland lost comfortably)

Thune (R) 52% Johnson (D) 47% Zogby 11/3-11/4 (It was a Johnson win by less than 1)

Talent (R) 53% Carnahan (D) 45% Zogby 11/3-11/4 (It was a 1 point race)

More.

And also:

Let me provide some details. If his polling methodology was superior to his competitors, this would have translated to success at the state levels (especially since to get a good national picture, one would have to have a good geographical balance in the sample). Mr. Zogby was all over the place on the state battles.

More

And finally:

In 1998, Zogby was out on a limb by his lonesome, predicting an Al D'Amato win in New York and a Carol Mosley-Braun win in Illinois. The limb broke.
More.

You would be hard pressed to find a single pollster who has had so many high profile races so completely wrong from 1998 onward. He's been right sometimes, and he's been wrong sometimes. He just happens to be wrong more than most pollsters. Throw on top of it doing online sampling, where people have to choose themselves first, and thanks but no thanks.

43 posted on 05/24/2004 7:34:27 PM PDT by Dales
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies ]


To: Dales

The numbers I gave were not the Zogby International figures but rather the Zogby Interactive figures from 2000.

You are correct, the final Zogby International figure for California on 11/4-6 had Bush and Gore tied at 45%-45%; the final Zogby Interactive poll on 11/3-5 had Gore leading Bush 47%-44% as I posted.

It is entirely your prerogative to dismiss Zogby's polling as you deem fit, but simply keep in mind that his 2000 record suggests you do so at your 'peril'...


46 posted on 05/24/2004 7:39:01 PM PDT by AntiGuv (When the countdown hits zero - something's gonna happen..)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 43 | View Replies ]

To: Dales
PS. I already mentioned that Zogby had some notorious misfires. I have no problem with criticizing Zogby to your heart's content. I am hardly a Zogby advocate per se. What I do have a problem with is people picking & choosing polls* at their convenience and then claiming objectivity.

* leaving aside partisan polls.

48 posted on 05/24/2004 7:42:58 PM PDT by AntiGuv (When the countdown hits zero - something's gonna happen..)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 43 | View Replies ]

To: Dales

Oh, and having said that I should also add that I have no great problem with rejecting this particular methodology out of hand. Like I said, I just think one should be mindful of the record in the course of doing so.

There will be plenty of polls to work with from these states even excluding Zogby's tracking, so whatever!


49 posted on 05/24/2004 7:46:06 PM PDT by AntiGuv (When the countdown hits zero - something's gonna happen..)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 43 | View Replies ]

To: Dales; AntiGuv; KQQL; Torie

Zogby also likes to put out completely nonsensical numbers for an entire campaign, and then say there was a "last minute surge" during the last two days of polling... and he then goes on in the media talking about this "dramatic shift"... like clockwork... and people still fall for it everytime.

There are some pollsters that I respect who seem to stay away from playing games: TIPP, SurveyUSA, Mason-Dixon, Field Poll (California pollster). SurveyUSA has probably been the most accurate pollster since 2002.


64 posted on 05/24/2004 10:58:29 PM PDT by ambrose (AP Headline: "Kerry Says His 'Family' Owns SUV, Not He")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 43 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson