“I may be very wrong but I would be absolutely stunned if [the Libertarians] turned into anything of any consequence,” said Cook.
I suspect Cook has it nailed fairly well... In 2000 outside of the two major parties only three candidates got more than 100,000 votes... they were:
Nader---2,882,728
Buchanan--448,991
Brown-----386,064
This year the Reformers have no candidate other than in some states they've accepted Nader.... Brown isn't running for the Libertarians and Nader isn't running as the Green Party but rather as an Independent