Posted on 05/23/2004 1:22:17 PM PDT by Aetius
After U.S. troops captured former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, the Gallup poll found Bush’s approval rating was over 60 percent. It is now down to 46 percent. Six months ago more than half of those surveyed were satisfied with the direction of the country; now, almost two-thirds are dissatisfied. The precipitous slide gives the Democrats improved electoral prospects this fall in the House and Senate, according to a report in the LA Times.
In the House, where 218 seats constitute a majority, there currently are 228 Republicans, 205 Democrats, one independent who routinely votes with the Democrats and a vacant seat. In the Senate, there are 51 Republicans, 48 Democrats and one independent who usually sides with the Democrats.
Just a year ago Democrats doubted they could recapture either chamber – despite the relatively narrow margins.
But the continuing grim headlines from Iraq and a yet wavering confidence in the economy are not only impacting Bush but working to the detriment of Republicans in Congress -- generally.
What a Difference a Year Makes
Just a short year ago, confident GOP leaders looked to expand their narrow control of the House and Senate to establish a durable majority that would dominate national politics into the next decade.
But that was then --
“The psychology has changed from one of [achieving] a permanent victory to maintaining the status quo,” said Michael Franc, a Republican who is a vice president of the conservative Heritage Foundation think tank in Washington.
Despite the opem window of opportunity, Democrats must still somehow morph the general voter discontent into key victories.
Abetting the party in the struggle for the Senate is the unexpected strength of Democratic candidates in several Bush strongholds, as well as retirements by GOP incumbents. As for the bid to take over the House, a good dose of momentum would come if they won an open seat in heavily Republican South Dakota — a potential second Democratic victory in a special House election this year.
Many Republicans are relieved that Election Day is not right around the corner, reports the Times.
“This is just the beginning of the summer,” said Rep. Zach Wamp, R-Tenn. “But if we get to Labor Day and we have these numbers in the polls, we have a big problem.”
Part of that big problem is already here, however.
Recent polls indicate that the Democratic Party had gained an edge over the GOP when people were asked how they would vote in congressional elections.
A Time/CNN poll found that 53 percent said they would vote for a Democratic candidate for Congress in their district, compared with 40 percent who said they would back the Republican.
A survey for the Associated Press reported that that 50 percent wanted Democrats to win control of Congress, compared with 41 percent favoring the Republicans.
Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for People and the Press, said such results probably reflected weakening support for Bush rather than a solid indication of voting intentions, adding, “No president gets turned out of office without taking some of his brethren in Congress with him.”
Harbinger of Political Swing
Furthermore, some Republican strategists say such soundings of public opinion are too generic to predict the outcomes in specific House races, which often are determined by local concerns. Other GOP leaders, however, worry that if these polls are the harbinger of a political swing that lasts into the fall, House seats not now competitive will become so.
“If that really is the mood of the country … we’ll have races that turn from monkeys into gorillas,” said Rep. Thomas M. Davis (R-Va.), former chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.
In the meantime, First Lady Laura Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney have been stumping for congressional candidates -- hoping to prevent the evolution of a hostile Congress to dog the president’s second term if successful at the polls in November.
Other Factors in the Mix
In the House, new district lines drawn after the 2000 census made safe seats even safer and reduced the potentially competitive ones to a few dozen, according to the Times report. Furthermore, Texas legislators redrew House districts in the state to give Republicans the potential to gain as many as six seats there.
In the Senate, the fight also began with a disadvantage for the Democrats because they had to defend 19 seats up for election, compared with the GOP’s 16.
Adding to the grim picture, Democratic senators from the South, a region Republicans have come to claim, opted not to seek reelection.
But some breaks are cutting to the advantage of the Democrats.
Last month, Republican Rep. Jack Quinn of New York announced he would retire, opening a House seat that Democrats have a chance to win.
A Democrat won a special election in Kentucky, taking over a GOP-held seat.
In South Dakota’s looming special election, Democrat Stephanie Herseth has been leading Republican Larry Diedrich in the polls. The vote will fill the seat vacated when Republican Rep. William J. Janklow was convicted of a lesser degree of manslaughter after running a stop sign and killing a motorcyclist.
Flipping back to the other side of the coin, Democrats suffered a hit when party incumbents in Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina and South Carolina decided to retire.
However, reports the Times, the GOP appears to have garnered a clear advantage only in Georgia.
According to battle plans, Democrats hope to gain seats in Colorado, Illinois and Oklahoma — seats opened by GOP retirements. The Democratic candidate in Illinois is favored to win there, and the party has fielded strong contenders in the other two states.
Republican stronghold Alaska is going down to the wire. Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski faces a primary challenge from the right and. Even if she prevails, she will then face strong Democratic opposition from former governor Tony Knowles.
Dimming GOP Prospects
Taking a hard new look at the overall developments, Jennifer E. Duffy, an analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said that in her estimation, the GOP chances of keeping control of the Senate has fallen to about 60 percent. Earlier this year, she had rated that prospect at 90 percent.
“We are in an extremely volatile environment,” said Sen. Jon Corzine, D-N.J., chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “There has been a major failure to manage the occupation in Iraq, which opens up people’s minds to the question of whether there has been competent management on a bunch of other issues.”
“It’s an object lesson in how quickly things can change in this environment,” said GOP pollster Whit Ayres, “and how event-driven they are.”
Osama Osama Osama...If we could just catch the mutt...Well we got about 6 months left.
They are equating his dad's campaign with him.
Piffle. Not bloody likely.
Bush II isn't Bush I and isn't going to just give up like Bush I did. I thought toward the end of Bush I's campaign we only had Clinton running unopposed.
Not this time.....
There is discussion here: Senator stumps for Thune
This article is the perfect example of why mainstream Americans are repulsed with the elite media. I love it! The sooner these suckers go the way of the dinosaures, the better!
Yes Jim, to the devil.
I heard him this morning. That was quite a report. Thanks for the links. Connecting the dots indeed.
Now if the Bush administration will only use it!
If the GOP loses, don't blame Churchillbuff - - he warned against invading Iraq. For the same reasons that Bush Sr. decided not to invade Iraq -- it would lead to chaos in a country composed of mutually hating factions. Of course, the Chalabi knew better, and Bush W. listened to advisors who bought Chalabi's bull. (At the very least we should have finished the job against the 9-11 culprits -- al queda and Osama -- before diverting energies and manpower to Iraq)
Don't you mean Chamberlainbuff.
Got news for you. The war in Iraq is over. Now the rebuilding begins. The only chaos that exists is in the minds of the liberal media and propagandists like yourself.
It's all coming together.
BTW, what's up with you talking about yourself in the third person.
I surmise that you will be using the royal "we" next.
I do believe in giving credit where it's due however...thank you for polarizing people against you and your tired anti-American mantra.
So you're upset that Saddam is on his way to trial and execution? You're upset that U.S. Special Forces are killing Al Qaeda operatives over there than over here? You're upset that the U.S. now has operating bases in both Afghanistan and Iraq?
I hope so.
All right, who's got the "Not this stuff again" graphic?
Good luck on getting the same Congress that authorized the war to impeach the commander-in-chief for successfully executing it.
LOL
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.