Posted on 05/20/2004 9:51:22 AM PDT by Jagdgewehr
Within the next two years, San Diego County's white population will officially become a minority, as increasing numbers of Latinos and Asians transform the region into one in which there is no majority racial or ethnic group.
New projections released yesterday by state demographers revealed that the changeover from majority to minority status for non-Hispanic whites by 2006 is happening 12 years earlier than had originally been predicted.
Six years ago, when the state last compiled population projections, whites were not expected to become a minority in San Diego County until 2018. They now make up a little more than half the population of 3 million.
The county, however, lags behind the state as a whole, which five years ago saw its white population dip below 50 percent for the first time.
The accelerated change in the minority status of whites is owing, in part, to a slowdown in the number of people state demographers now believe are moving into the county from other parts of the nation. Another factor is a change in the 2000 census form that allowed people to identify themselves as being of more than one race.
The latest numbers from the California Department of Finance depict a state that will increasingly be dominated – at least in sheer numbers – by Latinos, who will constitute a majority by 2038. At the same time, the number of non-Hispanic whites will continue to shrink, making up less than one-quarter of California's population by the half-century mark.
Locally, Latinos will not have reached majority status by 2050 but will be close, making up 47 percent of the county's population by then. However, much earlier – by 2024 – they will become the single largest minority group in the county.
"We have known that the racial and ethnic composition has been changing, so it's not surprising that Latinos will eventually reach a majority of the population," said demographer Hans Johnson of the Public Policy Institute of California. "My guess is what's driving this is that foreign migration will remain positive and fairly substantial, and for San Diego and California, that's largely Latino and Asian."
The changing face of San Diego County could portend an increasing economic divide between Latinos and other more affluent groups, who tend to be better educated and thus have access to higher-paying jobs, some analysts say.
"San Diego is already a divided community, with a more diverse community south of (Interstate) 8, but north of 8 you will have a white majority," San Diego State University professor Alberto Ochoa said.
"As the demographics change, it brings sociopolitical tensions in which the (Latino) majority is still a political minority, and you also have the social tension of the 'haves' and 'have-nots,' with the haves being those with a college education and others having minimal access to higher education."
If nothing else, the numbers are a reminder that California's destiny and that of San Diego County are very much linked to the success of their Latino population, researchers say.
"When we look at the importance of educational attainment for jobs and wages, it's very important for the state to be able to provide high-quality education to all its residents," Johnson said. "There are big improvements from first-generation (Latinos) to second-generation, but educational attainment still lags (behind) that of other U.S.-born residents. It's a glass-half-full, half-empty picture."
While the new projections show an overall slowdown in growth compared with decades past, inland counties will continue to see meteoric population increases as increasing numbers of people migrate there from high-priced coastal housing markets.
Riverside County, long a popular haven for aspiring home buyers in San Diego County, is expected to be the third-fastest-growing county in the state, with a population increase of 177 percent between 2000 and 2050. In raw numbers, though, it will add more people than any other county in the state, growing by 2.8 million, the projections show.
Also expected to grow rapidly is neighboring Imperial County, with an expected population increase of 136 percent.
San Diego County will see its population grow by 59 percent, to 4.5 million, but the annual growth rate will be a relatively modest 1.2 percent. It will, however, grow far more rapidly than Orange and Los Angeles counties over the long term.
While the new population forecast highlights the changing demographic makeup of the state, distinctions among races and ethnicities may become meaningless in the face of increasing intermarriage, SDSU geography professor John Weeks said.
"We already are seeing a fair amount of intermarriage, so the lines will continually be blurring among the Anglo, Hispanic and Asian populations," Weeks said. "In that way, California will lead the nation in these multiple-race categories, so these (racial) categories will be irrelevant by the time we reach 2050."
Here's a quote from a liberal rag:
white population will officially become a minority, as increasing numbers of Latinos and Asians:
which freely mixes skin tone (white) with culture (Latino) with geopolitics (Asian) and presumes all of it has racial intonations.
Are these folks screwed up or what?
They used to be but that doesn't get you all the free stuff like affirmative action, free college and the rest. You have to invent a new "race".
Who likes the white man?
The best thing is to always put down "other" for race. I figure I'm not white --- and beige or tan isn't one of the choices. I'm not sure I'm caucasian because I don't know if my ancestors came from the Caucus mountain region of Asia so I'm just other.
I wish I could get away with that. I'm so white I burst into flame just walking out to the pool. he he!
Sadly, Hildy, it already is like that here in AZ. Don't bother with Prescott...it's all "California" there. Same in the greater Phoenix-Metro area. It has changed here greatly in the last 10 or so years.
It really is like you never left (southern) California. The Arizona "culture" and attitude has turned into California maddness. Sad.
But welcome anyway! We could always use more Freepers here!
Where do you live, if you don't mind my asking.
We're looking at Bullhead City, Fort Mohave area.
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