You're saying we're in a crash? If so, why is the fed still talking about raising rates? They can't agree with you ...
The best theory I have is the James Dean movie "Rebel Without a Cause" -- the chicken race scene. We are racing China and Europa to the cliff edge or over. Greenspan's applying the brakes at the last possible moment and hoping China, if not Europa, goes over the cliff -- and that we don't.
Since when does the Fed forecast crashes? That's a joke. They are under the impression they prevent crashes, but the cumulative effect of what they do (e.g. holding rates to an emergency low for no reason thereby creating a credit/debt bubble and excess speculation) makes a crash more likely when things unwind.
I didn't say we're in crash conditions now, anyway. But between now and the end of the year wouldn't surprise me in the least.