[KQQL]

Right now W's average approval ratings is 46.0% from last 7 polls (Rasmussen and Dem or GOP polls don't count) and the max W can get over his average approval rating in a 2 way race is 1%.

So: If the election were held today, the approx election results would be.

Kerry 51.0%
W 46.6%
Nader 1.6
Others 0.8

W/O Nader
Kerry 51.9%
Bush 47.0%
Others 1.1%

[FairOpinion]

"W/O Nader
Kerry 51.9%
Bush 47.0%"

Please note that:
a) this poll is of ADULTS, not voters, which is normally highly biased favoring Democrat opinions and positions.
b) the article itself mentioned, without giving details, that the numbers among likely voters were quite different.
c) Even among this Dem biased adult group, Bush and Kerry are TIED within the margin of error.

Also, when I read about the electoral votes, Bush had 300-310 to Kerry's 228 or so.

[FA14]

So: If the election were held today, the approx election results would be. Kerry 51.0% W 46.6% Nader 1.6 Others 0.8 YOU SAY this....but this is really not true. Because the election if held today - the past 6 weeks or 8 weeks would have been entirely different. In terms of ad's, etc. So, while I get what you are saying...(only ad 1.5% to GWB approval rating...but this only matters come late Oct.).

It is just as if two boxers were to fight ...and in the middle of training camp you came in and said "lets get it on"....to see who the better of the two is (who would win)...this wouldn't be accurate in the sense that one of the boxers might have started camp much earlier and is further along in training then the other (and thus, at this time frame would be the better of the two....better conditioned at least).

[boxsmith13]

"W/O Nader
Kerry 51.9%
Bush 47.0%
Others 1.1%"


that is not a close race