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i agree that Bush isnt Carter and Kerry isnt Reagan, so i dont expect Kerry to win 489 evs, but i think Kerry will win about 320 evs and 53%

BASED on what DATA????? This is pure wishful thinking on your part. EVEN if Kerry does win, it will be 49.5-49% style race with the nation's political debate so violently partisan that the new president will be completely unable to claim a "mandate" of any sort and Kerry will be another 4 year lame duck just like Bush was after Nov 2000. What the Democratic Leadership does seem to realize is it's violently partisan behavior is making it IMPOSSIBLE for any Democrat to govern EVEN if they do win back any measure of political power. But since they are complete power whores, all that matters to Democrats is that they win. The irreparable damage they are doing to the USA along the way seem to matter not in the least to these political demagogues. ALL the poll data supports either a Bush win or very, very narrow Kerry win. WHERE do you see ANY data to support your notion of a Kerry landslide other then your daydreams?

I didnt say Kerry was going to be able to govern or be asuccessful President. My predictions of a Kerry win go only as far as Nov 2004, if you want further predictions beyond that, Id say Kerry is likely to be a complete failure as President and 2006 could be a repeat of 1994. That's when DEM's lack of enthusiasm for Kerry will really hurth.

320 EV's is not anything close to a landslide. The states of Florida and New Hampshire were razor close, so a small move in Kerry's direction could take those two states. Taking Ohio and keeping Pennsylvania would put him in the 320 range. He could do this with a small popular vote victory.

For Kerry to win 53% is a pie in the sky number, however. One has to go back, I don't know how far, maybe a century, maybe more, to find a Democtratic challenger to win with that % of the vote.