ELECTION 2004 Zogby: Kerry will win Pollster points to 4 reasons he sees Democrat victory

WorldNetDaily.com ^ | May 10, 2004 | WorldNetDaily.com

[FA14]

While I 100% agree that a performance rating under 50 is not a good sign (not at all)....I don't think this is 1980 again...(in any respect)...Totally different elections....totally different men running the WH (as incumbents)....

What I find interesting...is it appears GWB is doing better in many of the State polls as of late (this is not good for Kerry)...it seems as if Kerry is going to have to spend big money in some States he thought would be safe or at least leaning (Kerry).....NJ,WI,WV,MI,OR,WA ....these are all State that GWB is very close to him....

[John_7Diamonds]

Zogby said the same thing about Gore and that it was his race to lose. Well he lost.

John

[Shepster]

If Iraq continues to "go south" on us, a new scenario for a Republican victory in November would be thus: Bush declines running for reelection, the convention becomes open, McCain is nominated, all the wind goes out of the Dems sails McCain wins, we continue with sane policies in government instead of unleashing another Demo reign of decay. This would take a lot of guts and sacrifice on the part of the present administration, but it would save us from the Kennedy-Clinton mobsters.

Huh? This President does not quit. You need some rest.

[TomEwall]

The new TIPP poll shows Bush ahead by 5 (that's with Nader in the mix).

[boxsmith13]

Another problem with Kerry winning is it will send a message that a President shouldnt go to war even for American security or else he will lose. How many future Presidents will avoid war just because they want a short term win?

[CharacterCounts]

There is only one way Bush could lose to Kerry in this election: If the media convinces the public war in Iraq has turned into a meaningless quagmire, Bush will lose. Hence we are seeing the Nightline type of propaganda right now.

[MiniCooperChick]

"Second, there are very few undecided voters for this early in a campaign," Zogby says. "Historically, the majority of undecideds break to the challenger against an incumbent. The reasons are not hard to understand: Voters have probably made a judgment about the better-known incumbent and are looking for an alternative."

Is this guy stupid? I know nothing about pollsters since I lived out of the country since 1998, but this statement really jumps out! If there are few undecideds there will be no "break to the challenger". Duh!

[pogo101]

What's notably absent, at least from this summary article, is any historical comparison. And Massachusetts in '96 ain't the USA in 2004, thank heaven.

I still think it's going to be close.

[Cold Heat]

You are correct!

The rats fuel themselves on lies.

The close vote in 2000 has given them a false sense of confidence.

The facts are that about 20-30% of the democrats will vote for Bush at this point in time.

They are not going to let this be known until election day, IMO.

[samadams2000]

Agreed. McStain is the rights Jessie Jackson. He needs to get a job not run our country.

[hershey]

Bush won't go down that road. He vowed to protect the US as long as there's breath left in his body. He knows the danger Kerry would pose for the country. He'll run no matter what happens with Iraq. As for Iraq, we're finally getting some good news from them about the country's return to normalcy...forget the 'porn' pics and the daily army bashing. Nobody in his right mind would think the army is to blame when we have how many, several hundred thousand troops in and out of that country and these abuses were committed by maybe six or seven, anyway, a handful of people? Naturally, our enemies are busily parroting the line that the US committed the worst abuses in the world not only in Iraq, but everywhere we've ever been in our entire history. NPR is drooling over this nonsense, which should tell us something. They're upset that Kerry isn't out front on this...what do they expect him to say? Something sensible? It's not going to happen. So now they're praying that McCain will somehow save them. Gag.

[Unicorn]

No the arabs speak to him.

[cripplecreek]

Go and register with Zogby, they have both a free and pay service. You will be suprised at how much information is required for registration. Zogby knows exactly who they are polling.

Also be aware that Zogby polls are commissioned polls. This means that groups pay them to conduct polls and combined with the information Zogby has they can pick and choose who is polled.

[boxsmith13]

i agree that Bush isnt Carter and Kerry isnt Reagan, so i dont expect Kerry to win 489 evs, but i think Kerry will win about 320 evs and 53%

[boxsmith13]

"The facts are that about 20-30% of the democrats will vote for Bush at this point in time.

They are not going to let this be known until election day, IMO."

then Bush should be leading by 20 points today

[cardinal4]

Zogby first notes lackluster poll numbers for Bush. His most recent survey found Kerry leading, 47 to 44 percent in a two-man race.

Despite an unprecedented media onslaught, Bush's numbers have remained constant. Take Bush in November, give the points.

[aynrandfreak]

People tend to think that the person that they want to win, will win.

[TomEwall]

Under Carter inflation and unemployment were both over 10. Now their sum is under 10. An incumbant president with a strong economy is tough to beat. Bush is both far more popular than Carter, and Reagan than Kerry, for 1980 to play out here. This looks a lot more like 1996:

1) Polarizing president with ardent supporters and detractors.
2) Strong economy.
3) Third party candidate which hurts the challenger.

Two differences are there is a controversial war going on, and probably most importantly, the media is on the side of the challenger. The latter has a good chance of keeping the election close than '96.

[boxsmith13]

"Second, there are very few undecided voters for this early in a campaign"


Actually by his own admission there are about 9% undecided, which isnt too far off historical trends

[dartuser]

Well if Zogby thinks the economy is the number one issue, according to the people he polled, ... then W wins easily.

Wasnt there a Yale economics prof that runs an election model ?? ... His research at Yale predicts that W wins with 60% of the vote ...