Electoral College Breakdown 2004: May 5th Update

ECB2004 ^ | 5/5/04

[Dales]

I Wouldn't Touch It With a 10 Foot Poll

Likely Story

Are you a likely voter?

Before you answer that question, I want you to notice that I did not ask if you are likely to vote. These are two very different questions. How likely you are to vote is something you can answer on your own, and only you know how accurate an answer it is. But are you a likely voter? To answer this, you would have to know how the designation is defined. And that depends on who is doing the asking. Different polling companies use different methods for drilling down to those most likely to vote, trying to differentiate from the competition with increased accuracy and lower cost. How well a company screens for likely voters can greatly impact the results of a poll.

A good example of this can be found in the recently released University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll. The poll showed Democrat John F. Kerry leading President George W. Bush among likely voters in the state of New Hampshire by 4 percentage points, 49% to 45%. But how likely are the likely voters in this survey to actually vote?

According to the details published by UNH, their survey reached 542 randomly selected adults, including 491 likely voters. Right off the bat, this is an eye-raising metric, for it would mean that 91% of all adults in New Hampshire are likely to vote- not bloody likely. When a poll overstates the percentage of voters who will vote, it introduces a bias into the survey that favors the Democrats. This is because the adults least likely to vote fall into three main demographics: the poor, the young, and minorities. These demographics strongly tend to support Democrats.

Any screening for likely voters should begin by removing those who are not registered. A Gallup validation study (where the organization contacted those who it had earlier polled to check what they did on election day) in 1984 determined that just 2% of those who told pollsters they were not registered ended up voting. In the Granite State poll, 19% of the total adults questioned admitted to not being registered to vote-- 102 of the 542. The percentages indicate that just 2 of these people will end up voting come November. The other 100 will not. But UNH counted 65 of these 102 unregistered adults as likely voters, comprising 13% of their entire likely voter poll. Over one tenth of the results are attributable to people who are 98% certain not to vote. It all depends on the meaning of the word likely. As it happens, this faux pas probably did not impact the horserace results very much as they had Kerry leading by only 1 point among this group, but it shows a weakness in the methodology.

Another place where the likely voter screen shows itself to be lacking is with younger voters. Most estimates put the percentage of adults who are under the age of 35 that actually vote at around 33% (with those under age 25 voting less than 10% of the time). Yet the UNH poll has 104 of the 128 adults under age 35 interviewed categorized as likely to vote-- an 81% clip. And since this age group supports Kerry 2-1, the impact on the head to head numbers is significant. 79% of those earning less than $30K, another demographic, which generally votes in lower percentages, are listed as likely to vote (and support Kerry 3-2).

Take the unlikely likely voters out of the Granite State Poll, and Kerry's lead would not exist.

John Zogby handles the matter of likely voters completely differently. He made his biggest splash in the 1996 election. During the campaign, Zogby's polls had shown Clinton beating Dole by a much smaller margin than any other pollster was measuring. As Chris Mooney reported, "Zogby claimed to remedy the perceived problem of Democratic bias by weighting his data according to a previously determined distribution of party affiliation: 34.5 percent Democrats, 34 percent Republicans." Mr. Zogby predicts a turnout model; he guesses what percentage of the electorate will be Republicans, what percentage of the electorate will be Democrats, and what percentage of the electorate will be everyone else. In essence, he runs three polls and blends them together in the prescribed ratios. This can be deadly accurate when he guesses the turnout rates correctly, as he did in the 1996 campaign. In the 2000 campaign, he foresaw that Democrat turnout was going to be higher than it had been in 1996 and as such during the entire campaign his polls consistently showed Al Gore doing better than most other pollsters. When Gore made a late surge, the other polling companies ended up as accurate.

This method breaks down badly when the predicted turnout model does not pan out. In the 2002 Senate races, Zogby completely underestimated Republican success at getting out the vote (and Tim Johnson's success at getting out the Reservation vote), and the result was blown polls for Colorado, Illinois, Georgia, New Hampshire, and South Dakota. In 1998, Zogby was out on a limb by his lonesome, predicting an Al D'Amato win in New York and a Carol Mosley-Braun win in Illinois. The limb broke.

Gallup (except for the tracking poll they introduced in 2000) and Pew use very similar methods, based upon the Perry-Gallup Likely Voter Index. The Perry-Gallup system works by having the questioner ask respondents a series of 8 questions. For each answered 'correctly', the respondent gets a point. The top 70% of respondents ranked by this score are considered the likely voters. Some of the questions are aimed at how motivated the person is for the coming election: "How much thought have you given to the election" (score a point for "A lot" or "Some"), "Do you plan to vote" (score a point for "Yes"), and "On a scale from 1 to 10, rate your likelihood of voting" (score a point for 7 or higher). Another question is "Do you follow government affairs", with a point being awarded for either "Most of the time" or "Some of the time". Two get at voting history: "How often do you vote" (score a point for "Always", "Nearly", and "Part of the time", and "Did you vote in the previous Presidential election" (score a point if "Yes" and the person can recall the candidate). And the last two get at if the person is going to be able to find the booths: "Do you know where to vote" (score a point for "Yes") and "Have you ever voted in your current district" (score a point for "Yes"). Respondents are automatically coded a zero if they are not registered. Respondents under age 22 are given the three points for past voting behavior, so as to not unfairly punish them.

When making the cut at the top 70%, in practice this means that all of those scoring an 8 will make the cut, and a portion of those scoring a 7. For Gallup, they scale the 7's down to where they make the overall sample be 50% of the total adults interviewed, to match the general turnout rate in most Presidential elections. What about when turnout will exceed 50%? While one might expect that the predictions would be off then, since the model is based on a 50% turnout, in practice the system handles high-turnout races well. The questions which measure voter intensity tend to predict the coming heavy turnout, and as such the side which is more energized ends up taking a higher proportion of the top 70% of respondents. Pew's methods are based on the same concepts and many of the same questions, with some minor modifications.

Then late in 2000's campaign, Gallup threw a curveball. They introduced a daily tracking poll, similar to the ones being done by Zogby and Rasmussen. However, the Gallup Tracking Poll did not use the same screening as the Gallup Poll did. It used a similar method, but with a different set of questions (a 2000 mail mentioned a 7 point scale result, rather than an 8 point one). "We designed this instrument to be sensitive to day-to-day changes, and that's what it is doing," said Gallup's Frank Newport. They got what they designed-- the Gallup Tracking poll was all over the place, showing 20 point swings in a matter of days. On one day, 35% of the likely voter pool would be Republicans. Three days later, it would be 28%. One day, you would be likely. The next day, you would not.

Other pollsters do not specify exactly how they determine who is likely to vote. Rasmussen is one such example. In 2000, his poll showed Bush leading Gore by a considerably larger margin than other pollsters showed, and he did not catch the late movement towards the Vice-President that others did. He has made some changes this year, but exactly what they are is not clear. In an email to Tom Ewall, Mr. Rasmussen admitted that his method is anticipating a high turnout in 2004, and as such is using a looser screen for likely voters.

When examining poll results, it is important to keep in mind that not every likely voter poll is alike. Sometimes, comparing the results produced by one organization to that of another organization is like comparing apples to oranges. And sometimes, the results are no better than a poll of just registered voters or of adults. The savvy poll watcher learns to take every result with a grain of salt, and to avoid the urge to read too much in to any single result, especially when the underlying methods are not fully known and the internal demographics are not presented so that sanity checks can be made.

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This Week's Polling Updates Overview

The vast majority of the movement in the ECB this week was towards the challenger. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, this suggests that the fretting being done by some high-level Democrats is misplaced. Still, a case could be made that there has really not been any movement in the ECB towards Kerry; many of the states which have changed categories towards Kerry over the past few weeks have done so on the basis of polls by groups that either did not have previous polls (leading to a possible apples-to-oranges situation) or that had Kerry up by more earlier, but the state still moved towards him due to other polls done in between them showing a more favorable reading for Bush. It is safe to say that the race is still very tight, and that if either candidate is going to break away, there has been no indication that it is going to happen soon.

The current score in the ECB is Bush 206, Kerry 193. When tossups are factored in, Bush extends his lead slightly to 248-228. ECB Classic gives some grist to those who claim I am biased, as the raw score has Kerry leading 203-196. My bias cannot be too bad, though, since with the tossups Bush goes over the magic 270, leading 273-238.

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	F		Wisconsin
			Electoral Votes: 10
			2000 Result
			Gore 47.83%
			Bush 47.61%

Background: I got the *BLEEP* kicked out of me in Wisconsin. Oh wait, sorry. Stripes flashback. Reagan won here twice. Nixon won here three times. LBJ and Carter (against Ford) won here, and then the Democrats have taken the last four elections here. The first of Clinton's wins would have been a loss for him without Perot.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
5/03	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	53%	Unnamed Democrat	42%	Bush +11
10/28/03	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Bush +1
1/27/04	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	54%	Dem +16
3/24/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	46%	Kerry +3
3/31/04	Badger Poll	Link	500 Adults, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	41%	Bush +6
3/31/04	Badger Poll	Link	500 Adults, Nader an option	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	45%	Bush +4
4/21/04	Wisconsin Public Radio / St. Norbert College Survey Center	Link	358 RV	5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
4/28/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV, Nader not an option	4.5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +8
4/28/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV, Nader an option	4.5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +4
4/28/04	Badger Poll	Link	511 Adults	4.5%	Bush	50%	Kerry	38%	Bush +12

Punditry: My, oh my. The Badger Poll sure muddies the waters here, making it much harder to draw a conclusion on the actual state of the race in Wisconsin. While I am discounting the Wisconsin Public Radio poll for the reasons specified below (namely, there is no way that 90% of the randomly called adults were registered voters), that still leaves two polls with quite opposite results. Further, both of these pollsters have shown a propensity for accuracy in Wisconsin. As early as September of 2000, Rasmussen was showing Bush and Gore as compeletly neck and neck. In 2002, the Badger Poll had the Gubernatorial race nailed down. Without more information, I have no reason to trust one over the other. Tossup.

Addendum: A comment was made to me which suggested that I was not treating the Badger Poll and the Wisconsin Public Radio polls equally, despite the fact that both were polls of "adults". Guilty as charged! The reasons I give one more credence than the other are:

1. The Badger Poll has a record of good results in Wisconsin.
2. The Badger Poll does control to ensure the proper balance, according to past registration numbers, of Republicans, Democrats, and others (which in a state where the difference between voters and registered voters is negligible helps to explain why they have had good success).
3. The Wisconsin Public Radio poll had some numbers which show their controls were insufficient. 67% percent of Wisconsin adults are registered voters, but according to the Wisconsin Public Radio poll, 90% of the adults surveyed were registered voters.

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	F		Arizona
			Electoral Votes: 10
			2000 Result
			Bush 51%
			Gore 45%

Background: Since Harry Truman, only Bill Clinton (during his re-elect) has carried the Grand Canyon State for the Democrats. Clinton also made it close with the help of Perot in 1992. Other than that, things have been surprisingly one-sided. Arizona has 6 of 8 of its Representatives and both of its Senators from the GOP. The GOP also controls both chambers of the state legislature. The top of the executive branch is run by Democrats, with Janet Napolitano being a first term Governor and Terry Goddard being the Attorney General. Most other top executive offices are held by Republicans. Republicans have a 41% to 35% lead in voter registration.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
7/18/03	Behavior Research Center	Link	701 Adults	4.3%	Bush	55%	Unnamed Opponent	41%	Bush +14
1/11/04	Behavior Research Center	Link	641 Adults	3.9%	Bush	50%	Highest Ranking Democrat (Dean)	38%	Bush +12
2/19/04	SurveyUSA	Link	RV	4.3%	Bush	52%	Kerry	44%	Bush +8
2/22/04	Arizona State University	Link	430 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Dem +2
3/18/04	Survey USA	Link	634 LV	4.0%	Bush	51%	Kerry	42%	Bush +9
4/26/04	Arizona State University	Link	410 RV	4.8%	Bush	41%	Kerry	38%	Bush +3

Punditry: The Arizona State University poll has consistently been more favorable to the Democrats than the SurveyUSA poll has been. Still, it shows the President ahead, which is a change since the last iteration of the ASU survey, back in February. The temptation is to leave the designation unchanged, but to be conservative I will slide it back to Slight Advantage for Bush.

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	Connecticut
	Electoral Votes: 7
	2000 Result
	Gore 56%
	Bush 38%

Background: 3-5-3 in the last 11, with Clinton's first being probably due to the Perot factor.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
3/11/03	Quinnipiac	Link	RV	3%	Bush	37%	Unnamed Democrat	51%	Dem +14
7/31/03	Quinnipiac	Link	RV	3%	Bush	37%	Unnamed Democrat	51%	Dem +14
2/26/04	University of Connecticut	Link	448 RV	4%	Bush	36%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +13
3/28/04	University of Connecticut	Link	RV	4%	Bush	33%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +19
4/27/04	University of Connecticut	Link	501 RV	4%	Bush	33%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +18

Punditry: Bush gains a point. Impressive.</sarcasm>

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	Arkansas
	Electoral Votes: 6
	2000 Result
	Bush 51%
	Gore 46%

Background: Arkansas votes Republican, although if there is a southerner running against a northerner it will go Democrat. Carter beat Ford, and Clinton won twice. Republicans won all the rest since LBJ. Humphrey came in third here, behind Wallace.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
4/8/04	Arkansas State University	Link	Adults	5%	Bush	51%	Kerry	43%	Bush +8
4/14/04	SurveyUSA	Link	565 RV	4.2%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
5/2/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	45%	Push

Punditry: Rasmussen's poll confirms the earlier SurveyUSA poll, showing Arkansas to be firmly in the battleground range. Since two of the last three polls show Bush leading, and this one shows the race tied, I will maintain the categorization of Arkansas as having a Slight Advantage for Bush, which has to be considered a disappointing state of affairs for the Bush campaign at this juncture.

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	F		Oregon
			Electoral Votes: 7
			2000 Result
			Gore 46.96%
			Bush 46.52%

Background: The last 10 elections have gone 1-5-4. Without Perot, Clinton would likely have lost his initial run here though. From 1968 on, the only Democrat to break 50% here was Michael Dukakis; Reagan and Nixon each broke 50% in their re-elect.

In early 2000, Oregon was polling strongly for Bush. The left coast influence eventually took hold and turned it into a very even state, and it starts this year as a tossup. Democrats hold 4 out of 5 Representative seats, while the Senate seats are divided, just as control of the state legislative chambers is split. The Democrats hold most of the executive branch positions. Democrats hold a 3% lead in registration, 39%-36%.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
3/5/04	Hibbits	Link	?	?	Bush	40%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +5
4/7/04	University of Oregon	Link	440 RV	4.7%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
4/25/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1
4/29/04	Research2000	Link	500 LV	4	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2

Punditry: Three of four Oregon polls agree: Kerry leads Oregon. Four of four agree that it is very close. Slight Advantage for Kerry.

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	F		Michigan
			Electoral Votes: 17
			2000 Result
			Gore 51%
			Bush 46%

Background: 2-5-3 in the last ten elections. Without Perot, it likely would have been 2-6-2. Since Lyndon Johnson, only Reagan in his re-elect has approached 60%. Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.

Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
5/26/03	Epic/MRA	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	48%	Unnamed Democrat	41%	Bush +7
9/21/03	Mitchell Research	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Unnamed Democrat	49%	Dem +5
12/10/03	Survey USA	Link	724 LV	3.7%	Bush	53%	Kerry	43%	Bush +10
2/3/04	Survey USA	Link	724 LV	3.7%	Bush	46%	Kerry	51%	Dem +5
2/22/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	49%	Dem +4
3/1/04	Mitchell	Link	LV	4%	Bush	40%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +6
3/14/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +4
3/14/04	Marketing Resource Group	Link	600 RV	4.1%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
4/1/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
4/4/04	Survey USA	Link	536 LV	4.3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
5/2/04	Survey USA	Link	536 LV	4.3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4

Punditry: This result is more along the lines of what we had been seeing previously, and makes the April SurveyUSA poll look a little like an outlier. With four of the last five Michigan polls showing a result within one span of the margin of error, including this most recent one (barely), I am sliding Michigan back into the Slight Advantage for Kerry category.

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	F		New Jersey
			Electoral Votes: 15
			2000 Result
			Gore 56%
			Bush 40%

Background: New Jersey used to be considered a Republican state. Those days have passed, although there are still some signs of life. In the last 10 Presidential elections it has gone 1-6-3 with the Republican wins coming in the middle, the last Clinton win and the Gore win were by such substantial margins that it is hard to avoid the feeling that New Jersey is trending leftward.

If New Jersey remains tight enough to stay in the battleground, it is a case of back to the future. ECB2000 started with it leaning Gore's way. The Democrats have 7 of 13 Representatives and both Senate seats, control both chambers of the state legislature, hold all of the important executive offices, and have a 25%-19% advantage in voter registration.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/8/03	Rutgers	Link	802 Adults	3.5%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	35%	Bush +8
9/15/03	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	36%	Unnamed Democrat	29%	Bush +7
9/25/03	Quinnipiac	Link	RV	3.1%	Bush	48%	Kerry	43%	Bush +5
11/10/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,027 RV	3.1%	Bush	46%	Kerry	43%	Bush +3
1/11/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	32%	Bush +8
1/13/04	Rutgers	Link	823 RV	4.2%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +3
4/10/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	802 RV, Nader not an option	3.5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +1
4/10/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	802 RV, Nader an option	3.5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
4/20/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	39%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +12

Punditry: I had assumed that the Rasmussen poll would show Kerry up, and I will use this opportunity to slide New Jersey all the way over to Leaning for Kerry. Still, given the other polls including the FDU one, I would not be surprised in the least if we see another poll out shortly which puts this a bit closer.

Addendum: I am not going to do a full-blown update on New Jersey for this one, but here is a story about a poll taken of Hudson County (New Jersey). Kerry leads Bush 52.3 to 26.4 in a two man comparison.

Hudson County accounted for about 5% of the New Jersey votes cast in the 2000, and Bush took 26.2% of the vote (about what he gets in this poll) while Gore took 70.6% (about 20 points higher than Kerry gets).

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	F		New Hampshire
			Electoral Votes: 4
			2000 Result
			Bush 48%
			Gore 47%

Background: Clinton won twice here, and the second time would have been even without Perot. The first time, he likely would have lost.

Johnson won here. Other than that, Republican wins back through Dewey beating Truman. The elder Bush crushed the man who Kerry was Lt. Governor

for, Mike Dukakis.

Both last time and this time, New Hampshire started as a slight advantage for Bush. When looking at the other offices, it is hard to understand just why this state is not more firmly in his control. The Republicans hold all the House seats, both Senate seats, control both chambers of the state legislature, and hold all major executive branch offices, while having a 37%-26% registration advantage.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
4/27/03	Franklin Pierce College	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Unnamed Democrat	42%	Even
9/11/03	American Research Group	Link	RV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +14
10/16/03	Research 2000	Link	RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	39%	Bush +12
12/10/03	American Research Group	NA	RV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +12
10/16/03	Research 2000	Link	RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	39%	Bush +12
1/20/04	Associated Press	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	55%	Kerry	40%	Bush +15
2/20/04	University of New Hampshire	Link	511 LV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +15
3/18/04	American Research Group	Link	463 RV, Nader an option	4.6%	Bush	45%	Kerry	39%	Bush +6
3/18/04	American Research Group	Link	463 RV, Nader not an option	4.6%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
4/1/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	43%	Bush +5
4/1/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	45%	Bush +3
4/22/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
4/26/04	University of New Hampshire	Link	491 LV	4.4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +4

Punditry: The UNH poll This has something for each partisan camp to crow about. For Kerry, it shows him leading slightly in a state Bush carried in 2000. For Bush, it shows an 11 point narrowing of the gap since the last University of New Hampshire poll.

There are aspects to this poll which fit in nicely with the ideas I was working into tomorrow's article, so there will be more about it in that writing.

Slight Advantage for Kerry.

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	Alabama
	Electoral Votes: 9
	2000 Result
	Bush 56%
	Gore 42%

Background: Alabama has been a reliable GOP state, only straying twice since 1960; both times it went for a southerner. Jimmy Carter carried the state, as did George Wallace.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
4/27/03	USA Polling Group	Link	RV	5%	Bush	60%	Unnamed Democrat	30	Bush +30
3/18/04	USA Polling Group	Link	405 adults	5%	Bush	59%	Kerry	27%	Bush +32
5/3/04	SurveyUSA	Link	743 LV	3.7%	Bush	55%	Kerry	36%	Bush +19

Punditry: A little regression towards the mean, but Alabama is still far from a horse race. Safe Bush.

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	Vermont
	Electoral Votes: 3
	2000 Result
	Gore 51%
	Bush 41%

Background: Vermont went for Lyndon Johnson, then not for another Democrat until Bill Clinton. It has gone Democrat the last three elections (by 16, 22, and 10 points). Third party candidates are a factor in Vermont, even if they do not generally swing the state.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
10/02/03	Research 2000	Link	400 LV	5%	Bush	38%	Dean	50%	Dem +12
5/01/04	Research 2000	Link	400 LV	5%	Bush	36%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +15

Punditry: One of the most fun parts to this poll was how seriously the writeup takes it. "Mr. Bush is in trouble in Vermont," intones the pollster, Del Ali of Research2000. Here's a shocker- if Kerry was going to lose Vermont, he was going to lose just about everywhere. Strong Advantage for Kerry.

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Effective National Popular Results: Bush 45.0%, Kerry 44.7%

Kerry E					F Bush
Safe	Strong	Lean	Slight	Tossup	Slight	Lean	Strong	Safe
DC (3)	DE (3)	MD (10) K48-B43 3/24/04	IA (7) K47-B46 4/21/04	NM (5) B46-K45 4/1/04	AR (6) B45-K45 5/2/04	VA (13) B48-WC33 12/3/03	SC (8) B52-UD36 7/28/03	AK (3)
HI (4)	ME (4) K51-B38 3/4/04	MN (10) K50-B38 4/2/04	OR (7) K48-B46 4/29/04	OH (20) B46-K45 4/2/04	WV (5) B46-K41 4/15/04	GA (15) B47-UD43 2/4/04	MS (6) B49-UD29 12/22/03	ND (3)
RI (4) K53-B31 2/7/04	IL (21) K47-B39 3/13/04	WA (11) K46-B41 4/5/04	MI (17) K47-B43 5/2/04	FL (27) B46-K45 4/21/04	PA (21) B46-K46 4/25/04	NV (5) B49-K38 3/17/04	SD (3) B50-UD39 2/5/04	NE (5)
MA (12) K54-B32 4/5/04	CA (55) K53-B41 4/21/04	NJ (15) K51-B39 4/16/04	NH (4) K49-B45 4/26/04	WI (10) K50-B42 B50-K38 4/28/04	AZ (10) B41-K38 4/26/04	TN (11) B52-K41 3/22/04	KY (8) B57-K41 2/16/04	WY (3)
-	NY (31) K51-B32 4/22/04	-	-	-	-	MO (11) B49-K42 3/23/04	KS (6) B57-K39 3/4/04	MT (3) B52-UD27 5/16/03
-	CT (7) K51-B33 4/27/04	-	-	-	-	CO (9) B49-K44 4/14/04	IN (11) B52-K37 3/24/04	TX (34) B54-K35 3/6/04
-	VT (3) K51-B36 5/1/04	-	-	-	-	NC (15) B51-K44 4/1/04	OK (7) B47-K35 4/1/04	ID (4) B55-K23 3/17/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	LA (9) B52-K38 3/28/04	UT (5) B66-K24 3/25/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	AL (9) B55-K36 5/3/04
Totals
Kerry States			Battleground States			Bush States
23	124	36	35	62	42	79	58	69
193			112			206

Discuss ECB2004 On Free Republic

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Last week's quiz:

Which President was the first one who was born in the United States of America?

The answer is Martin Van Buren.

This week's quiz: What aircraft did the Air Force Thunderbirds fly for less than a year?

[Dales]

I had this up on my site last night, but was too tired to post it here. It is up now.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

So if Bush wins all the states in his category while Kerry gets everything else including the tossups, Bush wins.

I like it. Seems like an improvement since the last edition.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Whooops, I goofed. Doh. I added 79 to the 206 total which already included it.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Still, I am thinking Florida is not going to Kerry, just a hunch of mine but I don't think its gonna happen. If they didn't elect a good ole boy last time, why would they vote in an elitist Yankee? NY transplants and liberal Jews aint the whole state.

[Jet Jaguar]

Thanks for the post.
BTW I believe the T-bird answer is Republic F-105 Thunderchief

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

I also think it was F-105 Thud.

[Jet Jaguar]

[Alas Babylon!]

Sweet Home Alabama bump! First in the Nation (Alphabetically AND for Dubya)!

[not-alone]

thanks again

[Leisler]

Bump!

[The G Man]

Thanks, Dales.

[DM1]

ach what is up with NH! I hope he carries it or i will never hear the end of it

[crv16]

I have a hard time believing NH will go to Kerry. Dale's analysis of the polling makes sense. Plus there is the "motivation" factor. I don't think that Kerry really excites the Democrats. On a whole, I believe the Republicans will be more motivated than the Democrats.

[DM1]

I hope that you are correct i moved to NH to get away from liberal @$$% i really dont want to see my adopted state fall to them.

[TommyDale]

I have to laugh when I see North Carolina as "leaning" to Bush. People here have a tendency to vote heavily conservative in November, regardless of what they may say to pollsters. Just ask Jesse Helms.

[dirtboy]

Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Floriduh - the key states for this election.

[blanknoone]

Dales, when you say a state is 2-5-3 or 2-6-2, from context I figure it is the way the state went in the last 10 Presidential elections. But what are the numbers? R-D-??? or something else? Thanks for clarifying for this simple monkey.

[verity]

You were invaded by Massholes decades ago! :~)

[DM1]

"You were invaded by Massholes decades ago! :~)"
i know, i am one of them ;)
i escaped the tyrrany of the peoples republic last year.
even though there has been a steady stream of Massholes going north most wanted to escaped taxation. Couple that with the fact that NH has R governor, two R senators, 2 R congressman and the house and senate in the state overwhelmingly R i figured it was safe.
it looks like i am wrong