[DM1]

"solid conservative states: CO, OK, GA, SC, NC, FL, LA."
Normally i would agree but based on some local polls i found the following
CO, OK, and NC are all polling with a D lead for some reason that i really cannot fathom - i was surprised and dismayed. That being said it is still early so we shall see.
LA continues to disappoint. In 02 one of the House seats flipped from R to D in a runoff, Landrieu won and in 03 Blanco won. I dont trust LA at all.
GA i am fairly certain will be a pickup with Miller endorsing Bush and FL is probably a tossup depending on who the R nominee is.
Alaska is a concern as well with Nepotism charges on Markowski.

[JohnnyZ]

NC are all polling with a D lead for some reason that i really cannot fathom

Two things: one, with Republicans in the majority, divided government folks will lean toward Democrats. Two, I think we've been over NC -- Bowles has 86% name recognition, Burr 45%; when Burr moves up in name rec. he'll take over the lead in the polls.