Truth is, if we look at the polls of Kerry's approval ratings, we see that nearly 40% are undecided. With such a polarized country and a polarized candidate, Kerry should be less than 10% undecided easily.
I bet if you ask "Who do you prefer for president?" without giving a name, I'll bet Bush wins 40% to 20% for Kerry.
Bush, Kerry Even in New Hampshire OR
Bush Fails To Extend Lead in New Hampshire