Posted on 04/28/2004 4:47:49 PM PDT by yonif
Residents of southern Israel, prepare for the coming of the Katyushas. The fate that has, until now bee a plague limited to the northern Galilee, will soon be yours. On Sunday, if Prime Minister Sharons efforts are successful, we will begin the countdown for their launch, which will begin when the last settlers are expelled from Gush Katif. In the calm after the last heart-rending struggles, prepare for bombardment.
Until the evacuation, the evacuees will continue to be the rockets main target. As I write these lines, 4,059 mortar shells and rockets of various kinds have already hit them. Most of you hardly noticed. Now your turn is coming. They will no longer serve as a human shield. You will not be exposed only to tiny mortar shells and primitive rockets. You can expect the real thing.
The first stars will 120 mm mortar shells. They are not the best artillery but effective enough. Their six kilometers range enables them to reach Shderot, Yad Mordecai and Southern Ashekelon; they will target Alumim, Reyim, Nirim and Magen. For your information, a 120 mm mortar shell is nothing more than long pipe and a large platter. It can be smuggled through any tunnel and manufactured without any particular difficulty. The Katyusha rockets will follow. Even before they acquire truck-mounted multiple rocket launchers, the Palestinians will import single launchers, which are easy to move and smuggle. They will easily reach Ashkelon, Bror-Hayil and the Sycamore Ranch. Some models can reach Ofakim and Ashdod.
Last week, Lieutenant General (res.) Shaul Mofaz explained that the Israel Defense Forces will remain around the outer edge of the Gaza Strip. Until Maj. General (res.) Ariel Sharon gains control. He wants to leave the Egyptian border, too. In any case, the IDF will no longer be inside enemy territory. In the years after Oslo, we learned the meaning of this, the hard way. Immediately after the withdrawal, we will lose our intelligence sources. The heirs of Yassin and Rantisi will be able to sleep in peace. At the same time, we will not be able to do anything about the military developments that we are aware of. The Palestinian military industry will begin to produce at full speed while the Katyusha smugglers thrive.
The new freedom of movement will allow them to dig huge tunnels, receive cargo via sea and move it without fear. It will not be long before the Palestinians have artillery with an effective range of 6-21 km, maybe more. A whole new game a strategic one will begin. If we implement Sharons complete plan and also withdraw from the Philadelphi route, we will face hundreds of artillery guns that that will threaten to paralyze southern and central Israel.
What good will the anti-terrorism barrier do then? There is no need to explain. What will we do when rounds of Katyushas land on Ashkelon, the Sycamore Ranch and even Ashdod? Return to the Gaza Strip? That will be the only way to survive but we will no longer have the Jewish settlements that provide the land infrastructure and reinforce faith in the rightness of our way, and obviously without the unity of Israeli society that will be destroyed by the monstrosity of evacuation. By the way, there is another option. We could surrender to the artillery and give into Palestinian dictates regarding Jerusalem and the right of return.
So, prepare for the coming of the Katyushas. Dont say that this an empty prophecy of doom. All of the dark predictions that preceded the Oslo Accords came true and worse. After all, running away from Gaza is the natural continuation of the Oslo process, for both sides.

WARNING: This is a high volume ping list
They need no excuse from my point of view. Fire at will, boys!
-ccm
There is no real threat to Israel here, only a lack of resolve to shoot back even harder. It's a political issue, not a military problem.
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