Here is the take of FR's resident out-of-the-closet-self-admitted-RINO. Your certitude that Toomey is a loser in the general and Specter a winner is misplaced IMO. There are a dearth of polls on that, and Toomey is no Scundler. He has great articulative skills. Specter meanwhile may suffer from the terminal ennui of the shopworn product. In addition, Pennsylvania tolerates conservatives more than anyplace else in the Northeast except perhaps New Hampshire. The odds of Specter winning the general might be slightly higher than Toomey's, but Specter is not a cinch, and Toomey I suspect would be in the hunt.
Toomey after all has prospered in a district that was about even between Gore and Bush, ie with not much of a partisan difference from the state as a whole, and with more RINO's/liberal Dems than the state has as a whole. That demonstrates considerable political skill.
Placing a bet that Toomey can replace Specter in the Senate if he wins the nomination has a higher expected payoff than playing the slots in Vegas.
If Toomey has a chance to win do you think Bush, Rove,and Santorum would be suporting Spector?
To think you know what you are talking about one has to assume that Bush,Rove and Santormum would prefer a RINO that often votes against them to a Conservative who would always vote for them.
The only reason that Bush, Rove, and Santorum are supporting Spector is they desperately need an R in Pa to hold control of the senate. They are convinced that Toomey would lose to Hoefel.