[Gorjus]

If we're pumping it out of the ground quicker it can replenish, then there will come a time when the stuff will no longer be available.

Yup. And someday the sun will burn up all it's hydrogen, too. And, um, let's see - oh yeah, current indications are that the universe is open so eventually everything will die the ultimate heat death.

The key question is: When?

And while I won't presume to provide an answer, I will observe that every alarmist prediction on the 'when' question has been wrong - in fact, not only wrong but wrong on the trend. There are more known oil reserves today and more production capacity today than at any time in history. The will indeed come a time when production peaks, and a time after that when oil reserves are gone, but to say, "The only alternative right now is to shrink our economies" condemns the mass of men to "lives that are nasty, brutal, and short."

How is this a good thing?

[Junior]

The key question is: When?

Why wait until it's too late? While we have our current stocks we should be exploring the replacement energy sources. Honestly, I think we'll probably be forced to revert to alcohol or hydrogen, or both, eventually unless someone perfects Cold Fusion or makes fuel cells lighter and cheaper.

[Owen]

>
And while I won't presume to provide an answer, I will observe that every alarmist prediction on the 'when' question has been wrong - in fact, not only wrong but wrong on the trend. There are more known oil reserves today and more production capacity today than at any time in history.
>

Every prediction has indeed been wrong, but there just is no question that one of them is going to right eventually. That's the problem and a "positive" attitude about it is NOT that predictions have been wrong and that we're finding more oil or that extraction methods are improving. A "positive" attitude is that we're positive the supply of light sweet crude on this planet is finite.

(There is a Russian theory, not thought plausible, that oil is replenishing itself underground and that the supply is not finite. I'll preface the following with that comment. BUT.) If we consider it given that the original endowment of planet Earth with light, sweet crude oil is finite, then we WILL run out of it eventually.

There is, however, non light sweet crude oil around and a lot of it. A LOT of it. But it won't ever sell at $30/barrel. That's just not in the cards. Extraction of it is not a labor intensive thing that technology could overcome to reduce the price. Rather, extraction of it is an energy intensive thing. Thus we won't "run out of oil" for hundreds of years and maybe never if those alternate energy forms appear, but we won't pay $30/barrel for it, either.

BTW most of that heavy oil is in Canada and Venezuela. A time will come when we'll be defending it.