Second Scientist Predicts Major Southland Quake

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[chance33_98]

Second Scientist Predicts Major Southland Quake

A UCLA scientist has joined a University of Oregon geologist in predicting a major earthquake in Southern California in the near future.

Vladimir Keilis-Borok believes there is a 50 percent chance that a quake of magnitude 6.4 or greater will strike in the Mojave Desert sometime in the next five months. Keilis-Borok has already successfully predicted two previous major temblors, including the magnitude 6.5 shaker that hit Paso Robles on December 22.

The quake prediction covers a 12,440-square-mile area of Southern California that includes portions of the eastern Mojave Desert, Coachella Valley, Imperial Valley and eastern San Diego County. The area is criss-crossed by active faults, including the Coachella segment of the San Andreas fault, the Imperial fault, the San Jacinto fault, and the Elsinore fault.

Keilis-Borok uses a multidisciplinary approach to predict earthquakes. His team at UCLA includes experts in geology, seismology, chaos theory, pattern recognition, statistical physics and public safety. Using sophisticated mathematical analysis techniques, the team detect patterns in the small earthquakes that occur regularly along almost every fault system. Keilis-Borok believes that when the frequency of the quakes increases and they become centered in a specific area, a larger shaker is imminent.

If Keilis-Borok's current predictions proves accurate, it will provide strong validation for this theories. Although single earthquakes have been successfully predicted in the past, no one has ever correctly forecast a consecutive series of major quakes.

The prediction from the UCLA team appears to gibe with one made by University of Oregon geologist Ray Weldon, who found that stresses in the southern portion of the San Andreas fault area at a 1,500 year high.

Although Weldon, uses an entirely different methodology than Keilis-Borok, both men arrived at roughly the same conclusion. Weldon combined historical data on earthquakes with measurements of the strain on the San Andreas fault to arrive at his prediction.

Weldon is nowhere near as specific as Keilis-Borok, saying only that the fault appears overdue for a major rupture. He noted that the fault has historically produced a major temblor roughly once every 100 years. However, the interval has been as short as 10 years and as long as 224 years. The last major quake on the southern section of the San Andreas was in 1857.

The 1857 quake occurred at a time when Southern California was relatively thinly populated. Now, a quake of magnitude 7.5 or greater occurring in or near Los Angeles basin would do tens of billions of dollars of damage and likely claim thousands of lives.

Both men delivered the results of their research during the annual conference of the Seismological Society of America in Palm Springs.

[ChocChipCookie]

I can deal with severe weather conditions, even hurricanes, but earthquakes scare the heck out of me. This may put a damper on our October trip to Disneyland. I'd hate to be in The Haunted Mansion when The Big One hits. :O)

[John H K]

I'm still a bit mystified why the media is reporting Keilis-Borok's prediction as some new breaking story; his Southern California prediction has been out for months and months now.

[happygrl]

Before anyone gets all excited, the Landers Earthquake in 1992 was a 7.3 Magnitude.

It was in the Mohave.

No one died, as it was so remote.

I expect things will shake, but this is NOT the Big One.

[mtbopfuyn]

In other words there's a 50 percent chance that a quake of magnitude 6.4 or LESS will strike in the Mojave Desert sometime in the next five months (or whenever). Either way, he's predicted correctly.

[happygrl]

If it shakes the Mohave, Disneyland should be fine.

Don't miss The Haunted Mansion on account of quake fear. They're over pretty quickly and often, kinda exciting.

I guess only someone who's lived there can feel that way.

[rwfromkansas]

Have heard rumors of an earthquake in western Kentucky tonight. Anybody experience anything?

[socal_parrot]

I expect things will shake, but this is NOT the Big One.

Easy to say from Pennsylvania. Here in So Cal...

We're all Doomed!

Doomed.

[happygrl]

I am a former Californian who lived through the Landers Quake, the Big Bear Quake (same Day) and the Northridge Quake.

Have fun.

[Neanderthal]

"The prediction from the UCLA team appears to gibe . . . "

I think he means jibe, not gibe.

[chance33_98]

I lived in ridgecrest. Between the bombing and the quakes it was...interesting to say the least. My wife grew up in bakersfield and would rather have an earthquake than a tornado - something about watching your doom approach as a swirling black mass of debris while you cower she says.

[NonValueAdded]

So about how many electoral votes are set to drop off into the Pacific?

[chance33_98]

I dunno, but I do hope the FR servers don't go with them. ;)

[CyberAnt]

I agree. I live 11 miles from the ocean - 10 miles from downtown SD - on the side of a hill, and I never felt the Landers. The only one I have ever felt fairly strongly here was the Northridge - whatever fault that is.

[BenLurkin]

Was in Pasadena for the Landers quake. It started small and just kept getting bigger and bigger until I thought it was going to be the "Big One" before it suddenly tapered off.

Frankly, it scared me.

[goldstategop]

Its been a decade since our last really big earthquake in the L.A metro area. We're overdue for another one. Its simply a question of time before one occurs.

[polemikos]

Ray Weldon, who found that stresses in the southern portion of the San Andreas fault area at a 1,500 year high.

Were the pressure transducers used by North American natives in the year 500 that reliable?

[Conservative4Ever]

Just a few days ago Beaumont had a 3.4. Just a nice little jolt to keep us on our toes. I remember the Landers/Big Bear quake very, very, very well. :)

Red