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I am observing the U.S. elections from afar (that is from your closest ally over the seas), and find a few things interesting.

First, and most importantly, it seems to me that two issues are most crucial. First, the Economy, if it starts pulling up strongly between now and November, and if people believe that it is pulling up well then we can quote former President Clinton with great alacrity. Secondly, the War on Terror; this has the potential to be a massive yet unpredictable influence. For example, if Osama bin Laden is arrested shortly before the election then whatever else happens G.W.B. will get over 300 college votes; o.t.o.h. if it is perceived that Iraq is suffering from a gradual collapse into anarchy, and that more U.S. troops are needed then President Bush could hemmorage support.

I was somewhat surprised to see that Reagan carried Massachusetts (I would have been a boy of 4 at the time, and so did not notice even with my precocious childhood), was there any great thing behind this, or was it just a massive land-slide win?

Finally, and I know that I do not have to say this on Freerepublic, but this election is utterly crucial. By this time next year the three most senior countries in the Coalition of the Willing will have had elections. In the U.S. and Australia a right-wing leader faces a left-wing opponent who has been critical of his actions in the W.o.T. A victory for Sen. Kerry, or for the Australian Labour Party would have massive repercusions, our election is less relevant we have a leftist leader who supports fighting terror, opposed by a right-wing one who is even more certain of where we must stand. The U.S. presidential vote is possibly as crucial as any change of leadership since the House of Commons kicked our Neville Chamberlain and installed Sir Winston Churchill.

Go Bush.

I forgot one other point I wanted to mention. Have any data on spread-betting been produced?

In the U.K. our 1992 election was an utter failure for the opinion pollsters, right up to the election-night exit polls they thought that it was going to be a 'hung parliament' and earlier thought that it would be a clear Labour victory, with newscasters barely hiding their sarcasm when reporting Prime Minister Major saying that the Tories would win.

The spread-betters, by contrast, aggregated out at a small Tory victory about 3 days before polling. Duely the Tories got a 22 seat majority. I would be most interested to see what they are saying about this November.

Reagan just narrowly missed taking all 50 states. Mondale barely hung on to his home state.

The economy doesn't need to "start pulling up" as it has been moving up for quite some time. It just needs to continue as it has been. Ironically the main worry now seems to be that things are going so well that interest rates will start going up again.

I think the big question is what happens in Iraq. I agree with you completely on the importance of the election.