[Doctor Stochastic]

Monte Carlo simulation of Electoral College (based on your April 14 poll) gives: Bush 67.9% probability of winning (and Kerry 32.1%) and an average EV edge of 282 to 256.

This assumes that in the strong states, the leader is preferred by 60% to 40%, and 55-45, 52-48, 51-49, 50-50 for the others respectively.

[Brandon]

I am curious as to why you assign what seem to be low values to the probability of victory by the leading candidate in the "strong" and "safe" states. You seem to be saying that Bush has a 40% chance of winning in Massachusetts or New York, and that Kerry has a 40% chance of winning in Texas or Idaho. Or am I misinterpreting what you're doing?