Electoral College Breakdown 2004, April 14th Update

ECB 2004 ^ | 4/14/04

[TomEwall]

They don't inspire confidence, that's for sure.

[KarlInOhio]

Does anyone have information to the "keys" of victory for Presidential elections?

Allan Lichtman's 13 Keys to the White House. I'm still looking for a good site to describe it.

[tjwmason]

I forgot one other point I wanted to mention. Have any data on spread-betting been produced?

In the U.K. our 1992 election was an utter failure for the opinion pollsters, right up to the election-night exit polls they thought that it was going to be a 'hung parliament' and earlier thought that it would be a clear Labour victory, with newscasters barely hiding their sarcasm when reporting Prime Minister Major saying that the Tories would win.

The spread-betters, by contrast, aggregated out at a small Tory victory about 3 days before polling. Duely the Tories got a 22 seat majority. I would be most interested to see what they are saying about this November.

[TomEwall]

I was a part of this third until recently. I knew that jobs is a lagging indicator, but until that number came out, I didn't feel too good about this economy. I think there are a lot of people like me who just don't know the jobs situation yet, or who have been distracted by the economy.

[AuH2ORepublican]

In April, 2 FL polls have come out, one a Mason-Dixon poll showing Bush 8% ahead of Kerry, the second a Rasmussen poll that doesn't include Nader and in which Kerry leads by only 1% (2% less than last month's Rasmussen poll). I would have kept FL at slight lean to Bush.

[TomEwall]

Reagan just narrowly missed taking all 50 states. Mondale barely hung on to his home state.

The economy doesn't need to "start pulling up" as it has been moving up for quite some time. It just needs to continue as it has been. Ironically the main worry now seems to be that things are going so well that interest rates will start going up again.

I think the big question is what happens in Iraq. I agree with you completely on the importance of the election.

[TomEwall]

I think he moved it to toss-up because all the other polls showed Kerry ahead, so there's only been on +Bush poll.

[So Cal Rocket]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1116314/posts

This is a recurring thread, a new one each week with the new odds, for a betting site that takes wagers on Bush/Kerry carrying each state.

[KarlInOhio]

13 Keys to the White House: Current standings

The keys to Election 2004

13 questions. When 5 or fewer are false the incumbent wins, 6 or more and the challenger will win.

He ranked 8 true, 4 false, 1 undecided in 2003. The undecided now moved to true (economy not in recession during election). I have questions about a couple of the falses, but even if I give the author the benefit of the doubt that still only leaves 4 falses.

One other key (There is no significant third-party or independent campaign) might switch to true, but since Nader hurts only Kerry I would have to see the full description of the question instead of just the one sentence version.

Is this the list of questions you were thinking about?

[AuH2ORepublican]

"In fact, John F Kennedy is the most recent non-Southern Democrat to win a Southern state."

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Actually, Hubert Humphrey (from Minnesota) carried Texas in 1968. But JFK was the last non-Southerner to get as much as 45% in any Southern state (including Kentucky and Oklahoma). That's an even more telling sign of how difficult it is for Kerry to carry any Southern state. even Florida, in which less than half the people are really "Southern," will be very difficult for Kerry because he will get swamped in conservative-Democrat North Florida.

[BohDaThone]

the networks calling the state for Algore an hour before the polls in the heavily conservative Panhandle closed,

The network call was only 10 minutes before the Panhandle closed. The east closed at 7 PM (EST); the Panhandle at 8. The call was at 7:49-7:53. Even Sammons says so (See pages 36-38), though I think Jeff Greenfield's Book, "Oh Waiter, One order of Crow," has the fullest minute-by minute explanation of the VNS catastrophe throughout election night.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"The network call was only 10 minutes before the Panhandle closed."

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Yes, but anyone standing on line at 7:00 p.m. CDT could have cast a vote, and many people either didn't bother to show up or left the line. Republican pollsters estimate that it cost Bush around 11,500 votes, while Democrat pollsters estimate it cost Bush 8,000 votes, so Sammon used the 10,000 number. In any event, it would have made the FL election recount proof.

[KQQL]

Washington
The Elway Poll.

Kerry 46
Bush 41
Nader 2

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[KQQL]

OR :

Bush 47%
Kerry 45%
Nader 1%

http://osrl.uoregon.edu/press/report/2004PresElection.pdf

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[KQQL]

Bush has made a nice little comeback in Washington, and the race is now fairly competitive.

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No Dales, Rasmussen machine are titled towards rats this time, he scared of his failure in 2000.

[Osage Orange]

From the Okie section:"Insider Advantage suggests that Kerry may want to look to Henry as a running mate."

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ROFLOL!!!!!! BAWWWHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!

Brad Henry is a walking stiff. He doesn't "do" anything without consulting all the "good ol'goobers" in the State houses...that got him elected. If any state has a history of CROOKED elections...it's Oklahoma. And that is probably the biggest reason Henry won in Oklahoma.

FWIW-

[Dog Gone]

Nice job.

Throw a Saddam trial into the news mix before and even during the election, and Kerry is toast.

[TomEwall]

I've been wondering about this. The polls do seem to be running that way -- but how do you explain Missouri? (Rasmussen shows a 7 point edge for Bush)

[TomEwall]

Hey, good idea!

[Dales]

Thanks for the ping to the Elway Poll, btw. Regarding your comment, that may be the case, but the poll that had Kerry up double digits was a SurveyUSA one.