TECHNOLOGY REPORTER
When Corel Corp. of Ottawa shipped its first and only Linux operating system back in 1999, it was in the unusual position of having an award-winning PC product that attracted more praise than purchase orders.
Observers liked the idea of challenging Microsoft Corp. and the overwhelming dominance of its Windows desktop system, but many dismissed Corel's move as well-intentioned lunacy. The dominance of Windows left Linux challengers reluctant to enter the ring, let alone take a jab at the Redmond titan.
No surprise, Corel threw in the towel in 2001 and sold off its Linux operations.
Three years later, Windows still dominates about 95 per cent of the global PC market, but the psychological barrier of entering the ring with Microsoft is beginning to fall. More software providers are offering a desktop version of Linux, but perhaps more important, the number of organizations and consumers asking for it — or taking a closer look — is beginning to take off.
"It was slow at first but it's picking up," says Nat Friedman, vice-president of research and development at software firm Novell Inc., which is aggressively building Linux, whose mascot is a duck-like penguin, into its own business strategy.
"2004 appears to be the year where the big commercial vendors are getting behind the Linux desktop in a meaningful way."
Linux, having established itself as a worthy rival to Microsoft in the server market, is maturing on the desktop as well. It's much simpler to use. It can perform most of the basic tasks of a Windows-based system. It's also being backed by the likes of IBM, Hewlett-Packard and Sun Microsystems, ultimately making customers more comfortable with the technology.
For home users, you no longer need a computer science degree to install Linux, thanks to the work of smaller companies like Lindows.com, MandrakeSoft, Ximian, and Xandros, which acquired and improved upon Corel's original product.
The potential of desktop Linux will be one of many topics discussed this week at the Real World Linux 2004 Conference in Toronto, and again May 9 at the Open Source and Free Software conference at the University of Toronto. On the desktop, momentum is undeniably building:
Last month, Hewlett-Packard Co. became the first major computer manufacturer to begin selling desktop computers that run on Linux. The company is focusing on China and about a dozen other developing countries in Asia, where local politics and concerns about security are making Microsoft less popular with government and business. HP also expanded a partnership with Novell to supply desktop Linux to corporations in North America.
In January, Novell Inc. acquired SuSE Linux, the second-largest seller of Linux software in North America. Five months earlier Novell purchased Linux desktop specialist Ximian. Novell said last month it aims to build a "complete Linux desktop" as an alternative to Microsoft.
Red Hat Inc., the top seller of Linux server systems, is also getting into the desktop game. Chief executive Matthew Szulik told the Star that a desktop version of Linux for corporate customers would be available in "calendar 2004" and would be a natural expansion "from the server to the desktop."
Perhaps the biggest sign that Linux desktop is a serious trend is the commitment from Wal-Mart. Earlier this year, the U.S. retail giant began selling low-priced consumer PCs that use Sun Microsystem's Linux-based Java Desktop System. Wal-Mart has been selling other Linux systems — from Lindows, Lycoris and SuSE Linux — for nearly two years.
Developed by Finnish programmer Linus Tolvalds in 1991, Linux is a form of open-source software that is free for anybody to use and modify. This contrasts with Microsoft's proprietary Windows system, where the code is closely guarded and any modifications, fixes or enhancements must be done or approved by Microsoft.
The freedom to use and tinker with Linux doesn't mean it won't cost you. Companies such as Red Hat soon realized they could make a profit from this "free" software by making it easier to install and by providing all the service and support required to run it in a corporate environment.
That said, behind the scenes a global community of Linux programmers work diligently — some might say obsessively — to constantly improve the operating system and the applications around it. Think giant anthill. Think massive beehive.
"The power of innovation in the open-source community is unparalleled," says Chris Pratt, manager of IBM Canada's Internet server business. "You've got thousands of people working on this thing for no other reason than to produce the best quality product. If you look at what they've been able to produce up until now, imagine how it's going to go forward."
What's clear is that Linux has already established itself as a force in the market for servers, those powerful computers that process our bank transactions, e-commerce purchases, and business systems. In 2003, 16 per cent of servers shipped worldwide were preloaded with Linux, a figure that's expected to nearly double over the next four years, according to technology research firm International Data Corp.
But those numbers could be higher.
"We will always underestimate Linux's penetration in the market, because it doesn't include people who have downloaded and installed Linux on their own through the Internet," says IDC analyst Alan Freedman.
Growth in Linux revenues, meanwhile, is outpacing the competition. In the fourth quarter of 2003, revenue from Linux servers grew to $960 million (U.S.), up 63 per cent compared to the same period a year earlier, according to IDC. Windows had four times the revenue but only 16 per cent growth.
So what gives? Why are big names like HP, IBM, Sun and Novell jumping into the Linux fold, first with servers and now on the desktop?
The general assumption — though not always the correct one — is that Linux is cheaper, more secure and easier to customize than Windows.
Many companies, feeling constantly pressured to upgrade to the latest and greatest version of Windows, are looking at their constrained technology budgets and exploring their options.
The high costs of licensing Windows and the high-profile security vulnerabilities tied to Microsoft-based systems have many companies questioning the status quo.
"A lot of people upgrade out of fear of what they're not going to get versus what they need," says Pratt. "People are being more selective about what they require."
The debate over security is an interesting one, as both the Linux community and Microsoft claim to have the more secure technology. Some studies have argued that the world has grown overly dependent on Microsoft and that our economy and critical infrastructure are tied to a single point of attack and failure. By embracing Linux and other operating systems, diversity alone is supposed to act as a natural defence in a delicate ecosystem increasingly under attack.
Of course, this doesn't mean Linux is inherently more secure or less of a target. One U.K. report found that online Linux servers were by far the most attacked systems in the month of January.
However, the open and modular nature of Linux code — and the ability to better see, confine and respond to attacks without relying on Microsoft to issue a patch — may for some provide an edge over Windows.
"It's not an issue about the number of attacks, it's about the consequences for our customers," says Juergen Geck, chief technology office of SuSE Linux. "It's not really a challenge anymore to break into a Microsoft server."
Szulik of Red Hat says the growth in Linux is a testament to its security: "It was the inferiority of (Windows) technology that created the need for open source and Linux. If the technology was as secure as the competitor made it out to be, why is Linux the fastest growing operating system in history?"
Microsoft, for its part, has made security its top priority and is devoting a tremendous amount of its massive research and development budget to the cause. "The Microsoft commitment is secure by design, default and deployment," says Alec Taylor, senior manager of platform strategy at Microsoft Canada.
"Within a couple of years, Linux customers are going to spend the same amount of time, money and resources securing their open source stuff as they're doing with Windows," adds Taylor, suggesting that security is an industry-wide problem that is not unique to Microsoft.
Security issues aside, most Linux providers aren't so bold to suggest that the popular open-source technology is going to dethrone Windows in every market. They hold high hopes for the potential of Linux on the desktop, but they're realistic about its limitations — for now.
Linux is relatively popular on servers because they tend to run specific applications, such as a Web portal or human resources system. Desktops are a different beast depending on their use.
If a worker requires a number of applications, ranging from media players to spreadsheets to desktop publishing programs, a do-all-things and tightly integrated operating system like Windows is tough to beat.
"If somebody comes to me and says we need a full package of bells and whistles, we're not likely the answer," says Geck.
When computing needs get complicated, cracks begin to appear in the Linux model. Sure, the core software is free, but services and maintenance — averaging about 60 per cent of an IT budget — can cost some serious money.
Laura DiDio, an analyst with technology research firm The Yankee Group, said there is a large demand and short supply of Linux administrators, meaning companies can expect to pay a 20 to 30 per cent premium for people who can support and write custom applications for their Linux systems.
The more complex those systems are, the more help required. The cost of using this "free" technology can quickly skyrocket.
Home users are affected just as much — no free 1-800 number to call for help, no ability to use tax preparation software, desktop encyclopaedias or the thousands of other applications designed exclusively for a Windows world.
You can browser the Web easily enough on a Linux system, but you may not be able to conduct transactions or enter every Web site.
Glenn Bontje, business development manager for Linux at HP Canada, says the open-source model works best for two extremes: "When somebody is looking for a very button-down desktop with limited functionality, or somebody on the other end doing their own installation, own support and who can work around any incompatibilities."
The latter might include smaller businesses where employees have the technical know-how to meet their specific needs, meaning they don't have to hire outsiders at great expense. The former might include companies looking to run niche applications in call centres, kiosks or other environments where the task at hand is very focused or controlled and little system integration is required.
Let's face it, most people only use or need a fraction of the features and applications that Windows and its associated applications offer. For example, there may be over 900 functions in the most popular spreadsheet program.
"The average person is likely to use six," says Pratt. "What you'll find is there are a number of organizations around the world, specifically in government, where people see good-enough computing as open source and the Linux platform."
Whether we're talking North America, Europe or Asia, "all governments are actively looking at open source," he says.
The municipal government in Paris is flirting with the idea. So is Rome.
The decision to "take a look" might start as a political statement against Microsoft and its dominance in the market — perhaps to gain leverage in negotiations with the software giant — but ultimately any move away from Windows has to make good economic sense.
In Florida, the City of Largo has several hundred Linux-based computer terminals running basic office applications and a custom-built government portal giving access to information and citywide maps. The city estimates it is saving more than $1 million a year.
Munich, a city in Germany roughly the size of Toronto, is also giving Linux a shot. Working with Novell's SuSE Linux and IBM, the city is migrating 14,000 Windows NT-based desktop computers to Linux and a suite of open-source office applications called OpenOffice in hopes of finding cost savings over time.
The project is still in planning phases but work is expected to begin this year. "As far as I can tell, they're on track with their schedule," says Novell's Friedman, refuting some media reports — fully embraced by Microsoft — that the Munich switchover is already running into trouble.
Ontario, which uses Linux on servers for certain applications already, won't say whether it's considering Linux on the desktop. "Ontario is a user of open source software in situations where it is appropriate to the task at hand," wrote chief information officer Greg Georgeff in an e-mail message.
More interesting are developments in Asia. China, India and a number of other Asia nations that are experiencing tremendous economic growth, are concerned about national security, and have an interest in boosting their local markets. Linux helps them accomplish those goals, while offering a more affordable alternative to Windows.
"I just came back from India, and Linux is certainly very popular there," says Red Hat's Szulik. "You start to hear price points of under $5 for a client (desktop) implementation."
Friedman points out that only 10 per cent of the people on the planet have chosen an operating system, meaning 90 per cent don't use Windows. In places like China, where economic growth could soon create tens of millions of first-time computer users, Linux has the opportunity of becoming the only system they know.
"It could proceed at a very rapid clip," he says, explaining that it's easier to make a case for Linux when an organization is starting from nothing. Converting existing Windows systems to Linux is a whole other story.
Even so, as more governments in Europe and Asia choose to make such a transition, more North America governments — and eventually businesses — may follow. Friedman says Fortune 1000 companies are already dabbling. "People this year are in the piloting stage," he says. "They want to dip their toes."
Still, having only captured between 1 and 3 per cent of the desktop market, Linux has a long way to go. HP's Bontje says it might provide "good enough" computing, but the lion's share of the marketplace will remain Windows for the foreseeable future.
The Yankee Group says Linux desktop might start seeing some measurable progress two years from now, but there won't be a "perceptible dent" on the market share of Windows before then.
DiDio says most corporate customers have respect for the security, reliability, ease of use and performance of Linux, but many aren't convinced that making a switch from Windows will save them money or improve the operation of their business.
In fact, she says one of the chief benefits of Linux — the ability to modify its open-source code — irks some organizations, particularly those that carry sensitive data and need to indemnify themselves against security glitches and information spills.
"Let's say you're using Red Hat or SuSE, they get hit with a security hole, they release a patch for it. That patch is not necessarily going to work if you, as a customer, has modified the code," explains DiDio. "It's harder to insure these things if you're going to modify them."
It's one of many issues organizations must consider as they explore the Linux option, and certainly one that Microsoft will broadcast as it attempts to pour water on the Linux flame. The software giant's greatest ally is fear of change. That, combined with its willingness to spend big on innovation and security, gives Microsoft an awesome advantage.
"That familiarity, that pervasiveness (of Windows), makes it very easy for the user," says Taylor, who plans to bravely take the stage at this week's Linux conference and tell a hostile audience why Microsoft is a better choice.
Two years ago, Microsoft wouldn't step foot in such an event, nor would it launch an ad campaign dismissing its Linux rival. But time is the great equalizer, and Microsoft — as a monopoly on the desktop — has everything to lose.
"Look at what Linux achieved in such a short time in the server space," says Pratt. "Imagine now if those same resources and all the new ones coming on board decided to focus their energies on the desktop."
It's not so hard to imagine when it's already happening.
