[AuH2ORepublican]

"Specter won those votes in 1998. Please be accurate with the facts."

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In 1998, Specter did not face a well-financed Democrat challenge, so it is silly to even look at those numbers. So let's look at the 1992 election, the last time Specter faced a strong challenge.

Specter won with 49.10% in the state, to Lynn Yeakel's 46.33%. Specter was below 50% overall even though he received 39.34% of the vote in Philadelphia (source: http://www.seventy.org/stats/1992GeneralResults.htm), which is a ridiculously high percentage for a "Republican" in a city in which Clinton beat George H.W. Bush by 68.16% to 20.90% in 1992 and in which Gore beat George W. Bush by 80.04% to 17.99% in 2000. It is risible to presume that Specter would be able to win such a high percentage in Philly this time around, since (i) Philadelphia has trended even more Democrat than it was in 1992, (ii) there is more political polarization today than back then, so there is less ticket-splitting among Philadelphia Democrats, and (iii) Joe Hoeffel is from Abington Township, just across the Montgomery County border, and represents most of Northeast Philadelphia (which is the least heavily RAT part of the city) in Congress. The same holds true in the close-in Philadelphia suburbs of Montgomery, Delaware and Bucks Counties, in which Specter won 54.40%, 53.17% and 50.72%, respectively, in 1992 (source: http://wilkes1.wilkes.edu/~wesp1/sen/PaSen1992.html), but have trended Democrat through the years and in 2000 these counties gave George W. Bush 43.81%, 42.66% and 46.29%, respectively. Outside of Philly and its 3 adjoining suburbs, Arlen Specter got only 49.97% in 1992, a pitiful percentage for a Pennsylvania Republican and much lower than Santorum's totals in his 2 statewide victories or even than Fischer's and Bush's losing statewide races.

Nowadays, because of demographic and political changes in Philadelphia, Montgomery, Delaware and Bucks Counties, Republicans can't carry Pennsylvania without getting at least 55% of the vote in the Pittsburgh area and in the "T." And for that, Republicans need to not only turn out their conservative base, but get votes from blue-collar Democrats, who are generally liberal on economic issues but pro-life, pro-gun and pro-military. Arlen Specter can't do either of those things, but Pat Toomey can, as he has proven in his blue-collar Democrat district in the Lehigh Valley. And if Bush carries PA in 2004 (as I think he will), it will be because he will increase his percentages among blue-collar Democrats, not because he can somehow convince pro-abortion, anti-gun and anti-military suburban RINOs to vote for him. While Bush and Toomey can get their share of suburban Philly votes because of issues such as national security, our road to victory in PA in 2004 goes through places like Allentown and Scranton and Wilkes-Barre and Erie and the Pittsburgh suburbs, not through Philadelphia and its RINO-infested close-in suburbs.

So the choice is clear. If Pennsylvania Republicans want to win the 2004 elections, they need to support Pat Toomey in his primary challenge to Arlen Specter. GO, PAT, GO!

[WOSG]

AuH2ORepublican:

Once again, you blow me away with your erudition, detail, and precision. You are the JDAM of political analysis!

This needs to be sent to every PA county party chair, so the silliness of Specter being more electable is laid to rest: "If Pennsylvania Republicans want to win the 2004 elections, they need to support Pat Toomey in his primary challenge to Arlen Specter."

oh, and the Cuellar rumors ... he he he ... a win-win for the GOP.

[republicanwizard]

You would have a great point, even if it were not for the fact that 40% of the vote in PA is cast in Philadelphia, Bucks, Montgomery, Delaware, and Chester counties.

The bottom line is that Specter could still win 40% in Philadelphia, just as Sam Katz did.

I'm not saying Toomey isn't electable. He could win 20% to 25% of the vote in Philadelphia if he tries. He could even win Delaware and Chester Counties if he pushes a pro-market agenda and pro-budget cut agenda. However, if he is going to push guns and abortion in the general, then he will lose.

[republicanwizard]

"And if Bush carries PA in 2004 (as I think he will), it will be because he will increase his percentages among blue-collar Democrats, not because he can somehow convince pro-abortion, anti-gun and anti-military suburban RINOs to vote for him."

That is chancy. He narrowly lost Southwestern PA, and only won 55% in the central region of the state. However, if a Democrat wins 80% of the vote in Philadelphia and 60% in the suburbs, then a Republican candidate has to win the following:

70% in Central PA
60% in Northwestern PA
50% in Allegheny County
58% in Southwestern PA
55% in Northeastern PA

I've plugged the numbers before, and this is just to BREAK EVEN. If Republicans are to make PA a Republican state again, then it will take winning 55% in the suburbs.

[republicanwizard]

Oh, and in 2000, Gore won the suburbs 51% to 47%. It wasn't quite the blowout the media made it seem to be.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Check out this thread (and this post in particular).