Iranian Alert -- April 5, 2004 [EST]-- IRAN LIVE THREAD -- "Americans for Regime Change in Iran"

The US media almost entirely ignores news regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran. As Tony Snow of the Fox News Network has put it, “this is probably the most under-reported news story of the year.” Most American’s are unaware that the Islamic Republic of Iran is NOT supported by the masses of Iranians today. Modern Iranians are among the most pro-American in the Middle East.

There is a popular revolt against the Iranian regime brewing in Iran today. I began these daily threads June 10th 2003. On that date Iranians once again began taking to the streets to express their desire for a regime change. Today in Iran, most want to replace the regime with a secular democracy.

The regime is working hard to keep the news about the protest movement in Iran from being reported. Unfortunately, the regime has successfully prohibited western news reporters from covering the demonstrations. The voices of discontent within Iran are sometime murdered, more often imprisoned. Still the people continue to take to the streets to demonstrate against the regime.

In support of this revolt, Iranians in America have been broadcasting news stories by satellite into Iran. This 21st century news link has greatly encouraged these protests. The regime has been attempting to jam the signals, and locate the satellite dishes. Still the people violate the law and listen to these broadcasts. Iranians also use the Internet and the regime attempts to block their access to news against the regime. In spite of this, many Iranians inside of Iran read these posts daily to keep informed of the events in their own country.

This daily thread contains nearly all of the English news reports on Iran. It is thorough. If you follow this thread you will witness, I believe, the transformation of a nation. This daily thread provides a central place where those interested in the events in Iran can find the best news and commentary. The news stories and commentary will from time to time include material from the regime itself. But if you read the post you will discover for yourself, the real story of what is occurring in Iran and its effects on the war on terror.

I am not of Iranian heritage. I am an American committed to supporting the efforts of those in Iran seeking to replace their government with a secular democracy. I am in contact with leaders of the Iranian community here in the United States and in Iran itself.

If you read the daily posts you will gain a better understanding of the US war on terrorism, the Middle East and why we need to support a change of regime in Iran. Feel free to ask your questions and post news stories you discover in the weeks to come.

If all goes well Iran will be free soon and I am convinced become a major ally in the war on terrorism. The regime will fall. Iran will be free. It is just a matter of time.

A Young Radical's Anti-U.S. Wrath Is Unleashed

By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN
Published: April 5, 2004

BAGHDAD, Iraq, April 4 — For months, as American occupation authorities have focused on a moderate Shiite leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, a radical young Shiite cleric named Moktada al-Sadr has been spewing invective and threatening a widespread insurrection. On Sunday, he unleashed it.

At his word, thousands of disciples, wearing green headbands and carrying automatic rifles, stormed into the streets of several cities and set off the most widespread mayhem of the occupation. Witnesses and occupation officials said the disciples occupied police stations, fired rocket-propelled grenades at American troops and overran government security in Kufa, the town in south central Iraq where Mr. Sadr lives. "The occupation is over!" many yelled. "We are now controlled by Sadr!"

Mr. Sadr, 31, is the son of a revered Shiite cleric who was assassinated in 1999 by hit men under the rule of Saddam Hussein. He comes from a long line of clerics. A famous uncle was also silenced by Mr. Hussein in 1980.

Mr. Sadr had two older brothers, but they were killed with his father, leaving him the heir apparent.

In the prelude to the transfer of power from the American-led occupation authority to Iraqi civilians, planned for June 30, Mr. Sadr has been increasingly caustic, issuing statements denouncing Americans and any Iraqis who work with them. A newspaper that has been his official mouthpiece was shut down by the American occupation a week ago.

On Friday, he announced that he was opening Iraqi chapters of Hezbollah and Hamas, militant pro-Palestinian groups that Israel and the United States consider terrorist organizations. "I am the beating arm for Hezbollah and Hamas here in Iraq," he said.

Mr. Sadr is one of many powerful Shiite clerics calling for an Islamic government, though his following seems especially devoted. His men wear black shirts and black pants and carry larger-than-life portraits of him. He has a ruddy face and a thick black beard, and most photos feature him angrily shaking a finger.

On a recent day in Kufa, hundreds of boys marched around the town's main mosque, holding up posters of Mr. Sadr and chanting his name.

"It's true Moktada inherited a lot of support," said Hamid al-Bayati, a spokesman for the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, a prominent Shiite political party. "But there is also a lot of new passion for him."

On Sunday night, townspeople in Kufa said Mr. Sadr was holed up in its main mosque. Many said they would die before they would allow occupation forces to capture him.

In the past year of the occupation, Mr. Sadr has shown many faces. At times he is isolated by the Shiite leadership, at other times he is embraced. In the world of Shiite clerics, Mr. Sadr is an upstart. He is several ranks and many years away from attaining the title of ayatollah, which would mean his rulings would carry the weight of religious law.

Immediately after the invasion, Mr. Sadr deployed black-clad disciples to patrol the streets of Baghdad's Shiite slums. His men handed out bread, water and oranges. They also provided much-needed security. Mr. Sadr had seen a void and filled it. In return, leaders in the Shiite district of Baghdad that had been known as Saddam City decided to rename the area Sadr City, after Mr. Sadr's father, Ayatollah Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr.

Whether justified or not, Mr. Sadr has a reputation for vengefulness. Last April, Abdul Majid al-Khoei, a rival Shiite cleric, was hacked to death by a mob, a crime one of Mr. Sadr's henchmen is now accused of committing.

In June, Mr. Sadr formed a militia called the Mahdi Army. Many groups in Iraq have private armies. But Mr. Sadr's men, estimated to number in the tens of thousands, also formed their own religious courts and prisons.

This fall and winter, Mr. Sadr was eclipsed by Ayatollah Sistani, the septuagenarian cleric who demanded direct elections sooner rather than later and emerged as the most influential Shiite leader. The two do not talk.

As Mr. Sadr's popularity faded, his talk grew more militant.

In February, he declared his militia "the enemy of the occupation."

Last week, the American authorities shut down Mr. Sadr's newspaper, Al Hawza, after they accused it of inciting violence. Although the paper did not print any calls for attacks, the American authorities said false reporting, including articles that ascribed suicide bombings to Americans, could touch off violence.

The closing, set to last 60 days, began a week of protests that grew bigger and more unruly at each turn.

"Death to America! Death to Jews!" Mr. Sadr's supporters shouted.

The newspaper was an important symbol for many Shiites. Al Hawza took its name from a loose-knit Shiite seminary that dates from a thousand years ago. Its clerics have played pivotal roles in Middle Eastern history — and often militant ones. In 1920, Hawza clerics in Najaf encouraged the revolt against British rule in Iraq. In 1979, they played a similar role in the Islamic revolution in Iran, which like Iraq is mainly Shiite.

On Sunday, Mr. Sadr called for his followers to "terrorize your enemy."

"There is no use for demonstrations, as your enemy loves to terrify and suppress opinions, and despises peoples," he said in a statement.

"I ask you not to resort to demonstrations because they have become a losing card and we should seek other ways," he said. "Terrorize your enemy, as we cannot remain silent over its violations."

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/05/international/middleeast/05SADR.html

MKO Terrorist Groups to Be Expelled from Iraq Next Year: Minister

TEHRAN (Mehr News Agency) -— “We accept our responsibility, we have decided to expel the members of the group -the Mujahedin-e- Khalq Organization (MKO)- from the Iraqi soil. But, the execution of the decision is the duty of the coalition forces, it will be carried out by the next year,” said Iraqi interior minister on Sunday.

The Iraqi interim Interior Minister Nuri al Badran added that the expulsion should be in coordination with the United Nations, Geneva conventions and the UN treaties in this regard.

He also noted that the coalition forces in Iraq are preparing the grounds through which the Western countries would admit the members of the group into their countries.

Al Badran asserted that as far as the Iraqi officials are concerned the Mujahedin issue is finished.

The Iraqi interim interior minister who is currently in Iran termed the issue of the Iranian pilgrims as his main reason for the visit.

The toppled Iraqi government of Saddam Hussein harbored terrorist MKO members during its war against Iran. MKO has done many terrorist acts within Iran, killing President Mohammad-Ali Rajaei and Prime Minister Mohammed-Javad Bahonar in 1981.

Saddam used the MKO as a military force to suppress the Iraqi Kurds in the north and Shiites in the south.

MKO has been branded as a terrorist group by the U.S. State Department and the European Union.

Iran has announced that it will give amnesty to all those MKO members who have not committed any crimes against the Iranian nation. RA/MS/ End MNA RA/

http://www.tehrantimes.com/Description.asp?Da=4/5/2004&Cat=4&Num=010

UAE freezes assets of firm linked to Pak N-leak

ABU DHABI: The UAE central bank said on Sunday it has frozen the assets of a company linked to a Sri Lankan named by Western intelligence as a middleman in the sale of Pakistani nuclear secrets and parts to Libya, Iran and North Korea.

"We have frozen all accounts belonging or related to SMB Computer Co as part of the ongoing investigation into the suspected involvement of Sayed Tahir al-Bokhari in the sale of nuclear secrets," said bank governor Sultan bin Nasser al-Suwaidi, quoted by the official WAM news agency.

He said "the investigating committee which includes the central bank, Dubai’s public prosecutor’s office and other local parties, have made significant progress. The Dubai public prosecutor will announce soon the results of the probe."

The investigation has included "all individuals with links to SMB which is a computer programming company", said Suwaidi. Dubai’s public prosecutor’s office refused to comment on the case when contacted by AFP and it was not immediately possible to ascertain Tahir’s present whereabouts.

SMB’s telephone number is listed in the Dubai directory but there was no answer on Sunday afternoon. In early February Malaysian oil and gas firm Scomi said Tahir acted as a middleman in securing a $ 3.42 million contract from Dubai-based Gulf Technical Industries (GTI) in 2001 for the manufacture of 14 semi-finished components by SCOPE, a Scomi unit.

Scomi, which is controlled by a son of Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, said at the time that it was never told of the end-use of these components.

SCOPE had shipped the components to GTI, which has no number listed in the Dubai directory, in four consignments from December 2002. US and British intelligence revealed that five containers allegedly containing centrifuge components were seized from a ship, BBC China, in Taranto, Italy on October 4.

The containers had a "SCOPE" seal and they were heading to Libya, which intelligence say was planning to use them in its uranium enrichment programme. Tahir was named by intelligence as a middleman used by Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, who has admitted to selling atomic secrets to Libya, Iran and North Korea.

http://www.hipakistan.com/en/detail.php?newsId=en59946&F_catID=&f_type=source

Banking on Prosperity

April 05, 2004
The Guardian
Dan De Luce

The world's media seemed to expect drama and confrontation when Iran's clerical regime banned more than 2,000 candidates from standing in parliamentary elections in February.

However, that drama never materialised. A sit-in held by blacklisted MPs came to nothing. Reformist cabinet ministers threatened to resign, but ended up staying in office. Without a single street protest, the conservative establishment took back control of parliament in an orchestrated election.

The conservatives, allied with Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, correctly calculated that the public had long since given up on the reformists.

Millions of voters had come out in support of reformists in previous elections, believing that the president, Mohammad Khatami, and his allies could nudge the country's authoritarian theocracy towards genuine democracy and tolerance. This year, however, they stayed at home.

After humiliating Mr Khatami and killing off his experiment with reform, the conservatives are gambling that prosperity, not democracy, will keep them in power.

The victorious conservative bloc, Developers of Islamic Iran, has promised to create what it calls a more "efficient parliament", and says that it will turn Iran into an "Islamic Japan". The group has yet to explain how it will manage to create more jobs and curb inflation while speeding up the privatisation of state-owned industry.

According to Iranian newspapers, the conservatives are pursuing the "China model". This scenario would see the regime open up the vast state-owned economy, and tolerate a degree of social freedom, while keeping a firm hand on the levers of political authority.

On paper, Iran's economy is booming. Oil prices are high, and climbing higher, with hundreds of millions of dollars in oil revenue flowing into government coffers every month.

The country's robust growth figures are the envy of the Middle East, with GDP at more than 6% over the past two years. The roads are full of flashy new cars, and mobile phone sales are brisk.

Much of the growth is based on high oil prices and a speculative bubble in the property market. But, for ordinary Iranians, all that oil wealth does not seem to be trickling down.

Inflation eats away at wages. Secure, full-time jobs are hard to come by. Unemployment is officially standing at 15% and, according to most economists, is probably higher.

In the capital, Tehran, and other major cities, housing has become unaffordable for young couples without affluent parents. Teachers, and workers in the state car industry, have launched strike action over low wages in recent months. The gap between rich and poor is steadily increasing, even according to cautious government estimates.

Sensing public frustration, conservative commentators speak about the need for social justice and a fight against corruption.

"We want to use social welfare measures and also proceed with privatisation plans, so the gap between rich and poor does not increase," said Amir Mohebian, a pragmatic voice among the conservatives, who writes for the daily newspaper Resalaat.

To address Iran's economic problems, the conservatives would have to make painful choices and take on vested interests that profit from the mercantile system.

Attracting more foreign investment would require dismantling large, inefficient state-owned enterprises, as well quasi-state foundations, or bonyads, that enjoy monopolistic privileges.

No government has been willing to take the decision to shut down enterprises employing large numbers of workers, or to confront the powerful bonyads that have close ties to the ruling clergy. Previous attempts to wean Iran from its dependence on oil exports have failed.

During the early 90s, former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani recruited western-educated technocrats and set out ambitious plans for economic liberalisation. The reforms ended in half-measures and debt, with the bazaar merchant class firmly entrenched in monopolies and cronyism.

If fundamental reform seems unlikely, the regime may instead use the cash generated from higher oil revenues as a way of softening the effects of inflation through subsidies.

Such measures won't bring prosperity, but they might defuse tensions among the majority of Iranians, whose wages are outstripped by inflation.

On the ideological front, the regime has decided to turn a blind eye to violations of the Islamic dress code and rules that discourage mingling with the opposite sex. State television now shows Hollywood films alongside religious and ideological programming, with glamorous foreign women appearing without the veil.

Hamid Reza Taraqi, a leading member of the conservative Motalefeh party, said that CDs not completely in line with Islam have been allowed, and restrictions on how young people dress have been adjusted.

"We have provided normal freedoms in society and in the university environment for youth to express their mentality and worth in the way they dress, the way they wear their hair and also the kind of [social] relations they have," he said.

Such comments illustrate how the conservatives seem ready to abandon aspects of the ideology of the 1979 Islamic revolution to stay in power, and to co-opt the reformist agenda when convenient.

Hardline ideologues, who favour a strict interpretation of Islamic Sharia law, oppose moves to mollify the younger generation and worry about Iran taking a conciliatory stance towards former adversaries, both in the region and in the west.

Last October, they were incensed the leadership backed down and agreed to intrusive UN inspections of Iran's nuclear sites.

"If the system wants to rationalise and improve its image, then it means marginalising these hardliners," one Iranian analyst, who asked not to be named, said. "But there would be consequences for that."

Conflict between so-called "pragmatists" and the more ideological elements of the conservative establishment will increasingly emerge over economic reforms, social freedom and foreign policy.

Less than a week after the election, the head of the judiciary, Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi-Shahrudi, called for the creation of a new government office to combat "vice".

The comment, made on state media, seemed to hint at a revival of the notorious "komiteh" morals police that once patrolled the streets, enforcing strict Islamic dress codes.

The judicial chief's remarks were quickly buried, and the conservative press ignored the suggestion - a sign, perhaps, that the regime wanted to avoid antagonising Iranians over social restrictions.

While it has moved to stifle democracy activists, and keeps dozens of political dissidents in jail, no one expects the theocratic leadership to turn the clock back to the severe repression that followed the 1979 revolution.

Instead, Iran may be entering an era of stagnation, in which political opposition remains disorganised and oil wealth keeps the economy afloat.

Still reeling from their defeat, the reformists are debating the way forward. The more strident among them are considering forming a unified "front" that would openly advocate a secular state without superior authority invested in the Shia clergy.

One prominent student leader, Mehid Aminizadeh, of the Office to Foster Unity, said that the reformists never had a clear idea of what they were striving for. "This is the time for thought, contemplation and reconstruction," he said.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/elsewhere/journalist/story/0,7792,1186098,00.html

Attempted coup d'etat underway in Iraq right now

Instapundit ^ | April 05, 2004
Posted on 04/05/2004 2:10:36 PM PDT by John Jorsett

ZEYAD APPEARS TO HAVE ANOTHER SCOOP:

A coup d'etat is taking place in Iraq a the moment. Al-Shu'la, Al-Hurria, Thawra (Sadr city), and Kadhimiya (all Shi'ite neighbourhoods in Baghdad) have been declared liberated from occupation. Looting has already started at some places downtown, a friend of mine just returned from Sadun street and he says Al-Mahdi militiamen are breaking stores and clinics open and also at Tahrir square just across the river from the Green Zone. News from other cities in the south indicate that Sadr followers (tens of thousands of them) have taken over IP stations and governorate buildings in Kufa, Nassiriya, Ammara, Kut, and Basrah. Al-Jazeera says that policemen in these cities have sided with the Shia insurgents, which doesn't come as a surprise to me since a large portion of the police forces in these areas were recruited from Shi'ite militias and we have talked about that ages ago. And it looks like this move has been planned a long time ago.

No one knows what is happening in the capital right now. Power has been cut off in my neighbourhood since the afternoon, and I can only hear helicopters, massive explosions, and continuous shooting nearby. The streets are empty, someone told us half an hour ago that Al-Mahdi are trying to take over our neighbourhood and are being met by resistance from Sunni hardliners. Doors are locked, and AK-47's are being loaded and put close by in case they are needed. The phone keeps ringing frantically. Baghdadis are horrified and everyone seems to have made up their mind to stay home tomorrow until the situation is clear.

I'm not seeing anything about this elsewhere yet. It's bad news if things are as bad as this sounds. This report from Dow Jones says that Bush is predicting more violence in Iraq.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1111894/posts

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