Iranian Alert -- March 30, 2004 [EST]-- IRAN LIVE THREAD -- "Americans for Regime Change in Iran"

The US media almost entirely ignores news regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran. As Tony Snow of the Fox News Network has put it, “this is probably the most under-reported news story of the year.” Most American’s are unaware that the Islamic Republic of Iran is NOT supported by the masses of Iranians today. Modern Iranians are among the most pro-American in the Middle East.

There is a popular revolt against the Iranian regime brewing in Iran today. I began these daily threads June 10th 2003. On that date Iranians once again began taking to the streets to express their desire for a regime change. Today in Iran, most want to replace the regime with a secular democracy.

The regime is working hard to keep the news about the protest movement in Iran from being reported. Unfortunately, the regime has successfully prohibited western news reporters from covering the demonstrations. The voices of discontent within Iran are sometime murdered, more often imprisoned. Still the people continue to take to the streets to demonstrate against the regime.

In support of this revolt, Iranians in America have been broadcasting news stories by satellite into Iran. This 21st century news link has greatly encouraged these protests. The regime has been attempting to jam the signals, and locate the satellite dishes. Still the people violate the law and listen to these broadcasts. Iranians also use the Internet and the regime attempts to block their access to news against the regime. In spite of this, many Iranians inside of Iran read these posts daily to keep informed of the events in their own country.

This daily thread contains nearly all of the English news reports on Iran. It is thorough. If you follow this thread you will witness, I believe, the transformation of a nation. This daily thread provides a central place where those interested in the events in Iran can find the best news and commentary. The news stories and commentary will from time to time include material from the regime itself. But if you read the post you will discover for yourself, the real story of what is occurring in Iran and its effects on the war on terror.

I am not of Iranian heritage. I am an American committed to supporting the efforts of those in Iran seeking to replace their government with a secular democracy. I am in contact with leaders of the Iranian community here in the United States and in Iran itself.

If you read the daily posts you will gain a better understanding of the US war on terrorism, the Middle East and why we need to support a change of regime in Iran. Feel free to ask your questions and post news stories you discover in the weeks to come.

If all goes well Iran will be free soon and I am convinced become a major ally in the war on terrorism. The regime will fall. Iran will be free. It is just a matter of time.

Headlines From The Middle East Media

March 29, 2004
Middle East Media Research Institute
MEMRI News Ticker Headlines

March 29, 2004
In response to Berlin’s decision to unveil a plaque honoring four Iranian citizens assassinated by Iranian agents, the mayor of Tehran threatened to reveal the extent of German support for Saddam's chemical weapons program. (AL-ZAMAN, IRAQ, 3/28/04)

March 29, 2004
The head of the Russian federation's Islamic committee, Heydar Jamal, said, 'our religion is in fact a comprehensive ideology that would in the long run capture the hearts and minds of many currently non-Muslims in the whole world … Islam is the future of Europe, and if it fails in performing its historic prophecy there, the European countries would be the next targets of the U.S. imperialism.' (IRNA, IRAN, 3/26/04)

March 29, 2004
Heydar Jamal added, 'Sharon hopes to provide for a full scale war in the middle east, during which he would succeed in aggravating the dimensions of massacring the Palestinian nation and changing the population balance fully in favor of the Jews … [the US president George W.] Bush would leave no stone unturned in taking the American nation hostage to secure his global adventurism … Bush's main aim in pursuing this policy is proving the fact to the Americans that it would not be wise to change the high level leadership of the nation when the national interests of the Americans are seriously at stake…' (IRNA, IRAN, 3/26/04)

March 29, 2004
Hizbullah secretary general sheikh Hassan Nasrallah told the new leader of Hamas that the Lebanese resistance group was his to command. In a show of unity between the two Islamist groups, Nasrallah and Hamas' new chief, Khaled Meshaal, addressed thousands of Hizbullah supporters. (THE DAILY STAR, LEBANON, 3/29/04)

March 29, 2004
In a lecture in Rome, former archbishop of Canterbury George Carey attacked the Islamic culture, calling it 'tyrannical and inflexible,' and condemned the failure of moderate Muslims to condemn the 'evil-hearted suicide bombers.' (AL-SHARQ AL-AWSAT, 3/27/04)

March 29, 2004
Secretary of the guardian council ayatollah Ahmad Jannati said that the Palestinian Intifada has a bright future in store, adding that Israel is doomed to fail. He added that global powers like the U.S. and Israel would surely face a downfall according to the divine promise. (TEHRAN TIMES, IRAN, 3/28/04)

http://memri.org/ticker.html

Iran Could Nuke US Troop Concentrations in Iraq and Afghanistan

March 30, 2004
Islam Online
Erich Marquardt

Iran’s recent decision to halt all United Nations inspections of its nuclear sites for the next month emphasizes Tehran’s struggle to preserve its ambitious nuclear research program despite complaints from the United States. As Iran continues down the nuclear path, it is increasingly clear that Tehran is attempting to avoid the political ramifications implicit in the advancement of its nuclear research program, while carefully maneuvering itself into a position where it would have the option of developing nuclear weapons should the time or the need present themselves.

The reasons as to why the leadership in Tehran would be interested in developing nuclear weapons could not be clearer. Emplaced in a region of much geostrategic instability and sandwiched between two countries currently occupied by the United States, Tehran is facing a series of threats to its interests. If the country wishes to preserve its current internal political structure and maintain its territorial integrity, it is necessary for it to build up its defenses where it would be capable of engaging in warfare with other Middle Eastern or Central Asian states. In addition, it is important for it to have a strong enough deterrent to prevent outside powers, such as the United States, from attempting to manipulate the country for their own benefit.

Iran is progressing on building up its defenses lest border conflicts occur. Iran’s trade relationship with Russia has brought the Persian country massive supplies of military equipment, such as MiG-29 fighter aircraft, Su-24 fighter bombers, T-72 tanks and Kilo class submarines. Furthermore, Tehran has recently successfully tested its nuclear-capable Shahab-3 missile, capable of striking targets throughout the region.

The second critical aspect of Iran’s defense is its ability to deter outside powers such as the United States, a global power that is unprecedented in its military might. Thus, purchasing military hardware from the Russian Federation is not enough; the US’ latest weapon designs would render much of this equipment obsolete. The amount of money that the United States spends on its military also far exceeds Iranian spending. The one weapon that would greatly increase the risks of attacking Iran would be nuclear warheads.

By becoming nuclear-armed, states afford themselves the ultimate wild card: the ability to bring unacceptable levels of loss to the invading army or to belligerent countries’ interests. If Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, it would be able to hit targets throughout the Middle East, including US troop concentrations in Iraq and Afghanistan. While an attack of this sort by a nuclear-armed state would be highly unlikely - indeed, the only instance in which nuclear weapons have ever been used occurred almost sixty years ago - it is a possibility, and the fallout from that possibility is so extreme that it becomes an excellent deterrent in a state’s defensive arsenal.

Having a nuclear deterrent would, additionally, help Tehran deal with Israel. Israel has acted as an important balancing power in the Middle East, usually colluding with Washington to prevent any state in the region from becoming a regional hegemon. With the tremendous influx of state-of-the-art US-built weapons provided to Israel, coupled with that country’s nuclear weapon deterrent, Tel Aviv wields significant power in a region where it is one of the smallest countries in size.

Israel’s foreign policy, with respect to its preservation of this balance of power, was best demonstrated during its 1981 attack on Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor. At that time, the French were assisting Iraq in its pursuit of nuclear energy. Before the Osirak reactor was loaded with nuclear fuel (which would make an attack environmentally risky) Israel launched a surprise air attack and partially destroyed it - an act that demonstrated Israel’s military superiority and also preserved its nuclear monopoly in the region.

These geostrategic threats clearly demonstrate why Tehran has been unwilling to compromise on its quest to control the nuclear fuel cycle. Iran’s commitment to controlling this cycle - which includes uranium enrichment, a process necessary to create fuel for nuclear power plants but that can also be used to create nuclear weapons - can be seen in the tough public statements repeatedly made by Tehran. Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi recently argued that it is Iran’s “legitimate right to enrich uranium.”

Referring to Iran’s decision to halt its uranium enrichment program temporarily, Kharrazi said, “We suspended uranium enrichment voluntarily and temporarily. Later, when our relations with the IAEA return to normal, we will definitely resume enrichment.” Indeed, according to Hassan Rohani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme Council for National Security, the only reason that Iran complied with the demands of the United Nations to halt its uranium enrichment program was because otherwise Iran “would face the same fate as Iraq.”

Therefore, Iran cooperated with the United Nations while at the same time it worked toward a way to resume its nuclear program, including uranium enrichment. Rohani argued, “We want to be recognized as a member of the nuclear club; that means Iran be recognized as a country having the nuclear fuel cycle, and enriching uranium. This is very difficult for the world to accept.” He continued, outlining Iran’s agenda, “We have two goals ahead of us that we must achieve. One is closing Iran’s nuclear dossier with the [International Atomic Energy Agency] and bringing the board of governors to take it out of their agenda, and the other is to have Iran recognized globally as a nuclear country.”

Thus, it will be revealing to monitor how well Iran is able to maneuver around US attempts at preventing the country from proceeding down the nuclear route. Because outwardly admitting its desire for nuclear weapons would mean a heavy political blow to Tehran, the development of these weapons must be done in secret. Moreover, it is mostly the lead-up period to the development of nuclear arms that causes the biggest controversy. Historically, once a state actually tests its first nuclear weapon and quickly provides the world with assurances that such weapons would only be used as a deterrent, there is little that the world can do to reinstate the old status quo. There is no doubt that this political truth is on the minds of Tehran’s current leaders.

Erich Marquardt is an analyst with the Power and Interest News Report, located on the web at www.pinr.com

The articles posted on this page reflect solely the opinions of the authors.

http://www.islamonline.org/English/Views/2004/03/article08.shtml

FIGHTING CONTINUE IN TASHKENT, UZBEKISTAN

TASHKENT, 30 Mr.
(IPS, with Esmer Islamov of EurasiaNet)

Gun battles and bombings continued for a third straight day in Tashkent, the Capital of Uzbekistan, the Central Asia's most populous nation of 24.500.000 inhabitants. The broad scope of the violence, the full extent of which is difficult to determine due to government press restrictions, suggests that the episode may be a homegrown insurgency, rather than a strike by international terrorists.

Casualty figures for the clashes on March 30 were not immediately available, but a series of bombings and shootings starting on 29 March left at least 20 people dead and dozens more wounded, according to official reports.

Twenty militants and three policemen were killed after a spectacular hours-long siege and shootout near the residence of President Islam Karimov in the north-eastern outskirts of the capital Taskhent, the Interior ministry and witnesses said.

Several policemen and civilians were also killed during two car bombings at nearby military checkpoints that preceded the firefight, witnesses told the French news agency AFP.

Tuesday's violence followed a series of blasts and police shootouts in Tashkent and the ancient city of Bukhara Monday that killed 19 people and injured 26 others in what officials said were terror strikes.

Authorities confirmed two suicide bombings at the main bazaar in the Uzbek capital of Tashkent. Unconfirmed reports of numerous other bombings and shooting were circulating in Tashkent, including a bombing late at night on March 28 near one of President Karimov’s residences.

"Police surrounded a group of armed militants," said an interior ministry statement read out on television. "Twenty of them blew themselves up using self-made explosive devices. Three policemen were killed and five were injured".

"Out of the 20 people killed, there were three women. All of the women were wearing suicide bomber belts and one of them blew herself up," the officer said.

The sound of gunfire filled the neighbourhood, with local residents estimating that the fighting occurred over an approximately a two-kilometre radius around the TTZ plant. In all, approximately 20 explosions were heard during the clash, which continued until about 2 pm.

Prolonged exchanges of gunfire could be heard throughout the day in Tashkent. Some of the fiercest fighting was reported around the TTZ tractor plant, in the general vicinity of one of President Islam Karimov’s residences. Witnesses reported hearing an explosion just before 8 am outside a neighborhood police station.

Officials later reported that a group of about nine insurgents had barricaded themselves in a house near the TTZ plant. After authorities determined that the insurgents did not have any hostages, they brought in an armoured vehicle to open fire on the house, destroying the building and killing all those inside.

Police said they believed that at least three of the dead insurgents had participated in raids carried out in the same neighborhood on March 28. They based their conclusions on the fact that pistols found on or near the dead men apparently had been taken from police during the earlier confrontation. An Interior Ministry statement said 16 insurgents and three police officers were killed in fighting around the TTZ plant.

Fighting was reported in a wide variety of other locations in the capital. On the outer edge of north-eastern Tashkent, a suicide car bomber detonated at a police checkpoint at about 9 am. Insurgents also attacked a nearby police station. Witnesses reported seeing at least three bodies, including one police officer.

About 15 kilometres outside Tashkent, two Interior Ministry troops were reported killed in a clash with insurgents. There was also an unconfirmed report of a car bombing in the Bostanlik District, in the vicinity of the Chorvak Reservoir. The report raised fears that the insurgents might have been trying to blow up the dam at Chorvak. Such an act could potentially inundate Tashkent.

While the government has claimed that Islamic radicals, with international terrorist connections, are behind the violence, no group operating in Uzbekistan, including Hizb-ut-Tahrir, have claimed responsibility and in a statement issued in London, the Hizb-ut-Tahrir denied any involvement "whatsoever" in today's explosions".

Scattered bits of information coming to light raise questions about an international terrorist connection, lending credence to the notion that the violence is a popular reaction to government repression.

While the insurgents have utilized some terrorist techniques, in particular suicide bombings, some observers in Tashkent believe the attacks may not be connected to known Islamic radical groups, such as Hizb and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. Instead, it may be the work of a new group, with its origins rooted in the despair generated by the Karimov government’s stranglehold over the country’s political and economic life.

According to Dr. Mohammad Reza Jalili, an Iranian scholar teaching at the International University of Geneva, Switzerland, there are several reasons explaining the last days violence, including the autocratic and repressive nature of President Karimov’s regime; the total disregard for human rights, the appalling situation of the poor, elderly, workers and peasants who lives on a few dollars a day; discriminations against minorities, mostly the Tajiks, who are not allowed schools in Tajik language that is very near to Farsi and finally the presence of some 1.000 American troops.

In a televised address on Monday, Mr. Karimov claimed that Islamic radicals, in concert with international terrorist groups, had been planning the attacks for up to eight months.

However, some eyewitness accounts raise doubts about assertions of an international connection. First, some reports indicate that the insurgents were poorly armed. The account that some insurgents took pistols from police officers would appear to substantiate these reports. At the same time, the bombs employed by the insurgents appear to be crudely fashioned, with limited explosive force, assembled with locally available components. Some observers feel that if either the Hizb or the IMU had been involved in the attacks, the insurgents would have been better equipped.

The international community has generally accepted the Karimov government’s contention that the attacks are the work of international terrorists. In particular, the US officials indicated that the attacks would serve to strengthen the US-Uzbek strategic alliance. The Bush administration has emerged as Karimov’s primary backer in recent years, in large part because Uzbekistan is home to a US military base that is used for ongoing anti-terrorist operations in neighbouring Afghanistan.

The United States embassy in Tashkent had warned Monday that extremists might be plotting more terror attacks and advised US citizens in the country to be on "the highest alert."

"The attacks are yet another example of the importance of continued cooperation against those who would stop at nothing to achieve their misguided goals", US State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said.

There is a growing belief among Uzbeks that the attacks constitute a reprisal against a rapacious police force. Fuelling this view is the fact that most of the attacks to date have targeted police officers, while avoiding strikes at government buildings and other strategic installations. The car bombing at the Chorvak reservoir, if confirmed, would undermine this theory, however.

Many Uzbeks seethe over the arbitrary and corrupt action of agents of the state’s security apparatus.

At bazaars across Uzbekistan, police brutality is on display every day. This EurasiaNet correspondent was at the Chorsu bazaar in Tashkent recently, observing numerous police shakedowns of vendors, many of whom operate illegally to evade punitive government taxation. These shakedowns were conducted in plain view. In one particularly troubling incident, a police officer viciously kicked an elderly woman who did not move out of the way fast enough.

ENDS UZBEKISTAN FIGHTING 30304

Editor’s Note: Esmer Islamov is the pseudonym of a freelance journalist specializing in Uzbek political affairs writing for EurasiaNet.

http://www.iran-press-service.com/articles_2004/Mar_04/uzbekistan_fighting_30304.htm

ElBaradei in Iran next Tuesday

First Published 2004-03-30, Last Updated 2004-03-30 16:05:52
Middle-East Online

IAEA chief is to urge Iranian government to cooperate fully with international monitoring of its nuclear program.

VIENNA - UN atomic agency chief Mohammed ElBaradei is to hold talks in Iran next Tuesday to urge the government to cooperate fully with international monitoring of its nuclear program, agency spokeswoman Melissa Fleming said.

It will be the third visit to Iran by ElBaradei, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, since the IAEA began in February 2003 investigating whether the Islamic Republic was secretly developing atomic weapons, as the United States alleges.

The purpose of the visit is "to consult on outstanding issues relevant to the IAEA's verification of Iran's safeguards agreement" under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Fleming said in a statement.

She had said last week: "With the IAEA board of governors members calling for a comprehensive report for the next board meeting in June, Dr ElBaradei wants to personally emphasize to the Iranians how crucial it is they act in a fully transparent and cooperative manner so that the open questions about Iran's nuclear activities can be answered."

Two IAEA inspectors arrived in Iran last Saturday to carry out more checks on the country's nuclear program.

Iran had tried to put off the mission earlier this month after the IAEA condemned it for continuing to hide sensitive nuclear activities including designs for sophisticated P2 centrifuges for making enriched uranium which could be weapon-grade.

But Tehran yielded and allowed the visit after a delay of two weeks, following an international outcry against Iran for failing to cooperate with the atomic agency.

The UN team will focus its inspections on the Natanz uranium enrichment plant and the Isfahan nuclear technology centre.

The Natanz plant is one of two sites where IAEA inspectors have discovered traces of highly enriched uranium. This substance can be used in civilian nuclear reactors to generate electricity but it can also be used as raw material for a nuclear bomb.

Isfahan is a nuclear technology centre with a uranium conversion facility.

Inspection missions later in April are to verify Iran's pledge to suspend uranium enrichment and to try to answer questions about whether Iran has tried to make P2 centrifuges or has designs for nuclear weapons, diplomats said.

http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=9453

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