Islamists Losing Out To Pragmatists

The Guardian (UK) ^ | 3-25-2004 | John Aglionby

[blam]

Islamists losing out to pragmatists

John Aglionby predicts losses for hardline parties in Indonesia's election, after voters in Malaysia reject an Islamic state.

Thursday March 25, 2004

The only international monitors of Malaysia's general election last Sunday were pretty scathing when presenting the initial findings of their mission: there were enough regulation violations and credible manipulation allegations for the poll's validity to be seriously questioned. But even if their and the opposition's worst-case scenario is true, it is likely that only another 20-30 seats would have changed hands, which would still have given Malaysia's moderate, secular prime minister Abdullah Badawi the two-thirds majority he was looking for.

So even though one has to take into account the rampant pro-government bias of the mainstream media, it does appear that the Islamist Pan-Malaysia Islamic party (Pas) was dealt a hefty defeat.

Rather than expanding its sphere of control from the states of Kelantan and Terengganu, which it picked up in 1990 and 1999 respectively, to Kedah and perhaps Perlis, Pas lost control of Terengganu and came within a few dozen votes of losing Kelantan.

Pas's share of the Muslim vote fell from 56 to 44.8%, while Mr Badawi's United Malays National Organisation, which espouses a more moderate, tolerant form of Islam rose from 43 to 55%.

Surveys and analysts suggested that voters were turned off by Pas's desire to turn Malaysia into an Islamic state, complete with amputation and stoning for various crimes.

While there is an element of truth to this, pragmatism seems to have played just as crucial a role - both in 1999 when Pas achieved its largest electoral success and this time around. In both elections many people were voting for and against Pas for non-Islamist reasons.

In 1999 there was a groundswell of support against the then prime minister Mahathir Mohamad, primarily for his treatment of his dismissed and then jailed former deputy Anwar Ibrahim, while this time Dr Mahathir's successor, Mr Badawi, received a similar groundswell in his favour, particularly among first-time voters.

Attention now shifts to Malaysia's neighbour, Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim nation, which is due to hold legislative elections on April 5.

Five of the 24 competing parties are actively pushing for the implementation of a more Islamic form of government with several wanting sharia law, although they are couching their desires rather vaguely.

It is highly likely, however, that the same scenario that played out in Malaysia will transpire in Indonesia: Islam will be an issue but more pragmatic considerations will dominate.

At least one Islamic party, the Prosperous Justice party (PKS), is almost certain to see its vote rise considerably from the 1.4% it received in 1999. It is receiving such wide plaudits for being one of the few clean parties in the dirty morass that comprises most of the Indonesian political landscape that, in a marked absence of any other seemingly uncorrupt parties, many non-Muslims are expected to vote for it too.

But most of PKS's support will probably come at the expense of other Islamic-based parties, with the United Development party of the vice-president, Hamzah Haz, expected to be the main victim.

This means the Islamic parties' total vote is likely to remain somewhere in the 30-40% range, which will leave them more in a kingmaking role rather than realistically looking to sit on the throne itself in the presidential election scheduled for July 5.

With political Islam set for a prolonged period in opposition in Malaysia and Indonesia, and not even likely to register on the radar in the Philippine polls on May 10, there are credible fears that more radical elements might decide they have nothing to lose and resort to terrorism.

Jakarta police believe an explosion at a house in a city suburb on Sunday was the result of a bomb-making class that went wrong. At least 10 people have been arrested in connection with the blast and none of them is known terrorists or even thought to belong to any of the mainstream radical groups.

Several weeks ago their Malaysian counterparts picked up a group of Indonesians on their way from the southern Philippines, where they had been undergoing training, to Malaysian Borneo. One of the men arrested allegedly confessed that the group was planning to blow up the Indonesian police headquarters in Jakarta.

Are other groups out there? No expert would say "no". When will they strike? No one can tell, least of all the authorities in Indonesia and the Philippines, which are the most likely targets. Malaysia, in contrast, has used a draconian internal security act which allows for indefinite detention without charge to lock up more than 90 alleged extremists and so can legitimately consider itself safer.

The region's election season could run until September 20, when Indonesia holds the anticipated run-off vote for the presidential election. Few analysts would bet on nothing happening on the terrorist front prior to that.

[blam]

Once the Islamists seize power...there won't be any more elections, huh?

[glock rocks]

well, maybe in 20 or 30 years, when someone else decides to liberate them.