1)Illegal immigration is becoming the third rail of national politics as the consequences of illegal immigration gain political strength in our country. No administration is going to encourage the means to inflate statistics or allow widespread public knowledge of statistics that show a marked increase in rates for fear of opening a debate on the subject.
2)Local law enforcement, a source for statistics, has removed themselves from the debate to escape the increased cost of enforcement of federal law.
3) Traditional public safety nets, such as health, welfare and education, are purposely not documented for two obvious reasons. They don't have a ethical or political problem with illegal immigration and they know that if this factor were reduced, they would lose funding and politcal power.
4)The 4th estate is not willing to provide accurate information for the obvious reason. They support the Democratic Party and wouldn't undermine their cause and traditions. Don't expect an investigative exposes from the press on this subject unless its to expose the present administration for their broad incompetence on border security.
So what are we left with? Local, anecdotal information. Do more people in your neighborhood speak Spanish than did 5 years ago? The answer is usually yes. Do you encounter more Spanish speaking people in the services industry than you did 5 years ago? The answer is usually yes. Are there more children in your local public school who speak English as a second language than there was 5 years ago? The answer is usually yes. Do you, Mr. convenience store owner, think you are sending more or fewer money wire transfers to Mexico than you did 36 months ago. The answer is always more, significantly more. Is there more evidence of border trespass on your private property located along the Mexican border than there was three years ago. The answer is usually yes, in fact, "hell yes" if your property is located in Arizona.
In the end you are the best judge of trends. If you work for the INS in Arizona, you only need ask yourself what is the scuttlebutt in the office and in your community regarding anecdotal evidence of immigration rates?
I am familiar with California and by every measure in California, there is mounting anecdotal evidence that illegal immigration is accelerating rather than stabilizing or decreasing. While more illegal aliens are staying rather than the traditional semiannual migration, for reasons beyond the risk of crossing, the rate of first timers is up and growing. A recent AP article indicates that 10% of Mexico's population now resides in the US on a semipermanent basis and about 20% more are interested in coming if Fox and Bush could just "work out the details".
End of Part One. More to follow.
Interesting, that's how the INS has done it for decades.
Apprehensions have always been the way of judging the number of illegals crossing the border, at least in my lifetime.
If you work for the INS in Arizona, you only need ask yourself what is the scuttlebutt in the office and in your community regarding anecdotal evidence of immigration rates?
I do, and we all use the traditional method of apprehensions.
We know how many are caught and we know approximately how many are not.
When to BP responds to a call or a sensor hit, then take the number of illegals apprehended and then they compare the apprehension to the number of tracks on the ground and the number of hits on the sensor. From that information, they can get a very accurate number of aliens that got away.
The INS minimizes that number publicly, but if you take to the BP agents on the street, he’ll tell you the truth.
The BP apprehends approximately 10 to 20 percent of the illegals that cross. So, if you have 100 apprehensions, you pretty much guess that 1000+ got through. Now, that does not mean 1000+ illegals have made the US there new home, because some still head back home to Mexico or were ever they come from, but we know 1000+ made it through.
Like I stated before, the reason for the major increase in the permanent illegal alien population, is because they are not returning to their home countries, not because more are coming over, and that is because of the crack down on the border.
The current policy is causing the illegal alien population to take up roots here as opposed to moving back and forth across the border.
One must also understand that this applies to the Mexican illegals and not the illegals from other countries. The illegals from other countries are far more likely to stay here and never leave, due to the distance between their home and the United States.
I’m sorry, but counting the number of folks that speak Spanish in your neighborhood, is not a very good way to gage the increase or decrease of illegal aliens.
Everyone knows the numbers are increasing, but that does not correlate with an increasing number of border crossers. It correlates with an increased number of illegal aliens not returning home, like they did in the past.