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I think this election will be decided by Ohio and Florida, and I think Bush is strongly favored to win both.

According to the polls Kerry leads slightly in FL. I believe Bush is even or slightly ahead in OH. I don't know where you get strongly favored. I think there's a good chance every state goes the same as last time except that one or both of those goes Democratic giving Kerry the election.

Polls shmoles. It's March. Some Fla. polls show Bush up anyway, and he's got the machine on the ground, Jeb, and a state that's been trending more and more Republican. Remember that 'too close to call' race in 2002 that the Media kept telling us was a horerace between Jeb and McBride? Well, Jeb won it with 55%. If Mel Martinez wins the primary, It'll help him even more by energizing the Cuban vote.

I'm a little worried about Ohio, but I still think it'll be Bush country. Might be tight, but not all that worried.