Gas at $2? How About $3.78 (1979) or $10 (1920)?

Bloomberg Terminal | March 19 | Thomas R. Keene

[RightWhale]

Here is the website of a seminal article. The Lecture.

If you search on peak oil there are a lot of links. I don't know what to make of it myself. It seems we have 13 years best case and 3 years worst case before we drive full speed over the cliff and it is too late to do anything about it. Maybe it's a bunch of Chicken Little.

[expat_panama]

13 years best case and 3 years worst case before we drive full speed over the cliff and it is too late to do anything about it.

As I recall we've had about a decade of oil left for the last 50 years so I guess we always will. 

So watch out.  The end will come without warning.   You'll be driving down the road and your car will stop.  Out of gas.  You'll walk to a gas station to see a sign: "Completely sold out".  You'll look around and every single car and truck will be stopped except for the electric ones because no body in the world generates electricity by burning oil.

Sounds silly but lots of people swear by it.

[rightwingcrazy]

Your reasoning seems sound. Their numbers rely on "implicit GDP price deflators", and yours on CPI, but that's less apples to oranges than "golden delicious" to "granny smith". Both are price indices. Good enough.

I am not an economist, but I play one on FR--you get what you pay for here!

[RightWhale]

I guess we always will

The point of peak oil is that we won't run out, but we will find the cost rising from now on, and at some point oil will no longer be considered a resource. Then we crash.

[expat_panama]

will find the cost rising from now on..   ...Then we crash.

My point was that either a continuing rise in fuel or the crash scenario are both far fetched.  

Who knows, the trend we've had for the last hundred years could change, but if the price of oil does change in real terms, that will also bring so many alternatives on line.  It's true that the short term  supply and demand for oil are inelastic, but over time we develop new technology, new habits.  IMHO the human race has a pretty good track record.

[RightWhale]

Right. The Peak Oil people have a lot of charts and data, but it is heavy economics stuff, which is a subject I don't do. It's fine if someone says don't be alarmed, but it would take more than our oil history to convince me that things will continue as they have much longer.

Anyway, our show opens tonight and I have to sign off. Maybe tomorrow.

[expat_panama]

Thanks for your input.  When I mine data for insight, I gain a lot by tossing my conclusions out for everyone to kick around.  I prefer finding out if a fellow freeper cam knock holes in my ideas than having experience doing the damage.   Freepers cost less.