[wayoverontheright]

They made a major mistake attacking the U.S. in the first place. Will they duplicate it?

Major mistake is correct. Note that they like "soft targets" and I don't think they consider the US soft anymore.

[forrestroche]

Al Qaeda will be back, no doubt about it. But as you say, they like soft targets and probably would like to reserve something spectacular for the United States. Al Qaeda is not anything if not patient. And shrewd. They see the long term picture. They waited eight years to try a second attack on the Trade Center and I would expect that in 2009 we will be good and relaxed again (at least on the domestic front). A LOT of things could happen of course, but I would expect another large attack but not for a while.

The scariest scenario for me is the nuclear one. Nothing, not biological, chemcial, "dirty bomb" would have anything like the psychological impact of the sudden disappearance of a major U.S. city under a nuclear strike. And nothing would do a better job of provoking what I believe is their ultimate aim: A global conflagration of biblical proportions along religious lines.

forrest